Anthropic’s IPO Could Rival SpaceX at $2 Trillion Valuation

Anthropic, the artificial intelligence start-up behind the Claude models, is reportedly preparing an initial public offering that could break the record set by SpaceX earlier this year. According to US media reports, the company’s bankers have told potential investors it could raise more than $100 billion, valuing the five-year-old firm at around $2 trillion — a figure only a handful of companies, including Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, have surpassed.

SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, went public in June at a valuation of $1.77 trillion and raised $85.7 billion, the largest IPO in history. Bloomberg has reported that Anthropic “expects to match or beat the size” of that deal. The New York Times, citing two unnamed sources, said the company’s bankers had floated the $100 billion-plus target.

Anthropic declined to comment when contacted by AFP. The company confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in early June, and reports suggest the prospectus could be made public in the coming weeks, with shares potentially listing in the autumn. That timeline could see Anthropic beat OpenAI, its chief rival, to the public markets; OpenAI is reportedly hoping to list in 2027.

Founded in 2021 by siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei and other former OpenAI executives, Anthropic has positioned itself as a safety-focused alternative in the AI race. Its coding assistant, Claude Code, has become one of its most popular products, helping to push projected annual revenue to $47 billion. Revenue growth has been explosive: the company’s annualised run rate climbed from $1 billion at the start of 2025 to $5 billion by August 2025, $9 billion at the start of 2026, and $65 billion by July, according to reporting cited by The Motley Fool. Investors expect that figure to reach $100–$120 billion by the end of 2026, with 2028 revenue projected at $190–$200 billion.

However, the growth story comes with caveats. Anthropic has faced difficulties meeting demand for computing power due to chip and server shortages. Costs per task have risen as semiconductor and energy prices have increased, and Anthropic has passed these on to customers — meaning part of the revenue surge reflects higher spending on existing projects rather than new business alone, a point noted in commentary from CNA.

The company’s relationship with the US government has also soured. In March, the administration of President Donald Trump broke off contracts with Anthropic and designated the company a supply chain risk after it refused to grant the military unfettered access to its AI models. Anthropic called the move unconstitutional retaliation.

Comparing with SpaceX

SpaceX’s IPO set records both for valuation and funds raised. The company raised $86 billion, valued at $1.77 trillion, with a record 20 per cent of shares allocated to retail investors, according to one account. SpaceX’s market value now stands at about $1.85 trillion.

SpaceX’s financials offer a contrast. The company reported $7.8 billion in quarterly revenue, an annualised run rate of roughly $31.2 billion. Its AI business posted an adjusted operating loss of $741 million in the latest quarter, an improvement from a $2.09 billion loss in the first quarter. Management expects the AI business to reach a $100 billion annualised revenue run rate by the end of 2026. Musk has said SpaceX could reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, potentially driven by 10 gigawatts of computing capacity by the end of 2027, generating $300–$500 billion in 2028 revenue.

Analysts have cautioned that Musk’s projections are ambitious, and that early revenue figures may not reflect long-term profitability. Anthropic, by contrast, is projected to post an adjusted operating profit of $559 million in the second quarter of 2026, according to one estimate. The company charges 2.5 times the rate of OpenAI for its leading model.

Investor Questions and Outlook

Commentary from financial observers has raised questions about whether the $2 trillion valuation is justified. Some point out that Anthropic’s revenue growth is deeply tied to rising computing costs, and that the company’s dependence on chips and energy leaves it vulnerable to supply shocks. Others note that the AI market opportunity remains enormous — Anthropic estimates AI can handle more than 80 per cent of tasks in fields including management, finance, computing, architecture, law, arts and media.

The prospectus, when published, will provide the first detailed look at Anthropic’s finances. Until then, investors must weigh the record-breaking potential against the risks outlined above. Whether Anthropic can surpass SpaceX as the largest IPO in history — and whether it can sustain its growth — remains to be seen.