Can the Suez save Asian oil consumers after Houthis shut Bab al-Mandeb?

Lead

Two tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia have reversed course in the Red Sea after Yemen's Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi ports, raising fears that disruptions to another of the world's most important shipping routes could further restrict global oil supplies. The vessels, the Rodos and Xin Long Yang, were carrying a combined 2.8 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia's western port of Yanbu when they turned north after initially sailing towards Bab al-Mandeb, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler, as reported by Al Jazeera.

Coverage Comparison

Al Jazeera reported the tanker diversions and highlighted the potential damage to Saudi Arabia's alternative export corridor via Yanbu, noting that Asian refiners are considering sending oil northwest from Yanbu through the Suez Canal and around Africa to reach Asia. Deutsche Welle cited tracker data showing ships avoiding the strait, including a Clarksons report of four vessels rerouting through the Suez Canal, and quoted US Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying that restrictions on Red Sea shipping would be problematic for the same reasons as Hormuz.

The Guardian reported that Asian governments are scrambling to avoid a second major energy crisis in six months, with countries like Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea—which rely on Middle East oil for up to 90% of their imports—working to secure supplies. The South China Morning Post noted that a full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could disrupt petroleum flows of about 7.4 million barrels per day, or roughly 7% of global oil output, citing Kpler data.

Key Claims

• Two tankers carrying a combined 2.8 million barrels of Saudi crude from Yanbu reversed course after Houthi warnings, according to Kpler data reported by Al Jazeera.
• Shipping in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is "under pressure," with traffic falling sharply, as reported by Kpler and cited by Deutsche Welle.
• A full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could disrupt petroleum flows of about 7.4 million barrels per day, or roughly 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data cited by the South China Morning Post.
• Asian refiners are considering a diversion from Yanbu through the Suez Canal, adding weeks and over 10,000 nautical miles to delivery times, as reported by Al Jazeera and Deutsche Welle.
• The Houthi threat has inspired the Philippines, India, and South Korea to bolster their strategic reserves of oil and gas, as reported by The Guardian.
• The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen vowed to respond firmly to threats against commercial shipping and said it had begun implementing measures to protect vessels transiting the strait, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
• The US military launched an 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, as reported by Deutsche Welle.

Perspectives

Houthi position: The Houthis said the blockade threat was retaliation for Saudi Arabia's 12-year restrictions on the movement of food, medicine, and other essential goods through Yemeni crossings, ports, and airports, as well as the plundering of local resources, as reported by the South China Morning Post.

Saudi-led coalition position: The coalition vowed to respond firmly to threats against commercial shipping and said it had begun implementing measures to protect vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb, as reported by the South China Morning Post.

US position: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said anything that restricts shipping through the Red Sea would be problematic for the same reasons that the Strait of Hormuz is problematic, as reported by Deutsche Welle.