Can Iran fiasco help China edge out US in key arena of Southeast Asia?

Lead

As the United States' military action against Iran reverberates through global markets and alliances, Southeast Asia finds itself at a geopolitical crossroads. The conflict has triggered sharp energy price spikes that have squeezed regional economies, while NATO allies have distanced themselves from Washington. Some observers now ask whether this could help China expand its influence in a region where the US has long been a security and economic anchor.

Coverage Comparison

Two analyses from the same outlet, the South China Morning Post, offer contrasting perspectives on the potential fallout. One piece, analytical in tone, warns that Washington's actions may lead to an erosion of influence in Southeast Asia, drawing parallels to Russia's position in Central Asia after its Ukraine offensive. The other, more reassuring in tone, quotes a former US diplomat insisting America remains a dependable ally and central to the region's trade and security for years to come.

Key Claims

US military action and regional response

The US launched a major combat operation against Iran on February 28, 2026, as reported by the South China Morning Post. The strikes prompted several NATO allies to distance themselves from Washington, according to one analysis. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) issued a statement on March 4 expressing "serious concern over the escalation of conflict in the Middle East" and repeatedly called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.

Energy crisis impact

The conflict has triggered what one SCMP report describes as "the worst energy crisis in memory," with oil prices soaring above US$100 a barrel for weeks. This has inflicted pain on Southeast Asian allies dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports, particularly with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic reassurances

Ambassador Daniel Kritenbrink, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs under President Joe Biden, now a partner at The Asia Group, told This Week in Asia that the pain from energy prices was "going to get worse before it gets better." However, he insisted Washington would remain an "indispensable ally" with few signs that Southeast Asia would shift closer to China as a consequence of the White House's unpredictable trade and security policy.

Perspectives

Concern over US reliability: An SCMP analysis argues that the US may face an erosion of influence in Southeast Asia similar to that suffered by Russia in Central Asia after its Ukraine operation. It notes that European allies refused to participate in the Iran mission, and ASEAN's balanced statement suggests the bloc does not intend to side with Washington despite some members being US treaty allies.

US remains central: The other SCMP piece, heavily reliant on Ambassador Kritenbrink's comments, contends that America remains a dependable ally and will be central to the region's trade and security. Kritenbrink acknowledges the current pain but frames it as temporary, with no strong signals of a regional pivot toward China.

Background context: The Iran conflict comes amid broader US-China competition in Southeast Asia, a region that balances economic ties with Beijing and security ties with Washington. Energy dependency on the Middle East has long been a vulnerability for several ASEAN members, many of which are net importers.

This article synthesizes reporting from the South China Morning Post. The two source pieces present different emphases, and this account aims to reflect both without endorsing either conclusion.