Can China’s new Arctic Sea route to Europe replace Middle East chokepoints?

China's Arctic 'Ice Silk Road' emerges amid Middle East shipping disruptions

China has announced a new shipping route through the Arctic Ocean, named the “Ice Silk Road,” which could ease global trade flows as conflicts disrupt critical Middle East waterways, according to Al Jazeera. The route begins at Ningbo on China's east coast, follows Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic Circle, and terminates at Felixstowe in eastern England.

Last week, Chinese container shipping company Sea Legend formally announced the new route, which it named after the historic Silk Road. The company had conducted a test voyage along the route last October; according to a report by China's Xinhua news agency, the voyage took 20 days, compared with about 40 days via the Suez Canal and 50 days via the Cape of Good Hope.

Interest in Arctic shipping has surged following the effective suspension of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz due to the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran, as well as threats in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, according to Fortune magazine as reported by TASS. These disruptions have increased transit times, fuel and insurance costs, and heightened instability in global supply chains, the magazine noted.

The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key transit point to the Red Sea off Yemen, has become a no-go route for many ships as Iran-backed Houthis target shipping linked to Saudi Arabia, disrupting traffic to and from the Suez Canal, Al Jazeera reported.

New regular service and growing Arctic activity

On August 15, Chinese shipping company Sea Legend Shipping launched a regular container service from China to Europe via the NSR, according to Fortune magazine as reported by TASS. Containers will cover the distance in 20–22 days under a fixed schedule, primarily targeting high-value cargo including cross-border e-commerce goods, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products, and automotive components.

Li Xiaobin, Sea Legend's chief operating officer, said the new route is particularly suitable for heat-sensitive and time-critical cargo such as lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products, Al Jazeera reported.

Earlier Arctic initiatives include NewNew Shipping Line's “Arctic Express No. 1” route, launched in July 2024, linking Shanghai and Ningbo with Arkhangelsk via the NSR. In June 2026, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Murmansk Region authorities agreed with a Chinese company on the first direct transshipment of around 500 containers through Murmansk Commercial Sea Port, according to TASS.

The Northern Sea Route runs along Russia's northern shores, connecting European and Far Eastern ports, with a length of 5,600 km from Kara Gate Strait to Providence Bay, TASS reported.

Strategic implications and expert views

Broader use of the NSR could reduce China's dependence on the Strait of Malacca, through which approximately 80% of China's oil imports pass, according to Fortune magazine as reported by TASS.

Dylan Loh, associate professor at Nanyang Technological University, said the route is a seasonal supplement dependent on ice melt and is criticized by green groups for contributing to further melting, Al Jazeera reported. Climate change has caused significant melting, with Arctic sea ice extent during the winter peak phase falling by 5.8% between 2024 and 2025, according to a July study by Southampton University, Al Jazeera noted. The route is only accessible during warmer summer months due to impassable winter ice.

William Yang, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said China is currently the only country that can realistically use the NSR as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz or the Suez Canal, but sailing through it could pose political risks because most vessels using it are Russian shadow fleets facing sanctions, Al Jazeera reported. Yang added that China could use increased commercial activity through the NSR to expand its presence in the Arctic and deepen its foothold there.

The Arctic is increasingly becoming a theater of great-power competition. Alejandro Reyes, adjunct professor at the University of Hong Kong, noted that China has been an observer in the Arctic Council since 2013, and regular shipping gives that presence a practical economic dimension, bringing the Arctic into great-power competition, Al Jazeera reported. Reyes also noted that NATO launched a military mission called Arctic Sentry in February 2026 aimed at curbing threats from Russia and China.

Russia, for its part, hopes to ramp up commerce through the NSR by working with China to trade more with Asia than Europe due to Western sanctions, according to Al Jazeera. In 2017, Xi Jinping told Dmitry Medvedev that China and Russia should jointly develop and use the NSR, Al Jazeera noted.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump made a major play for the acquisition of Greenland last year, according to Al Jazeera. Arctic Portal predicts the Northwest Passage will be used on a more regular basis in the near future, Al Jazeera reported.

Challenges and outlook

Despite the enthusiasm, the NSR remains a niche route. Only 23 container ships transited the NSR last year, up from 15 in 2024, according to Allianz Commercial, Al Jazeera reported. Permits to sail are issued by the Northern Sea Route Administration, an agency under the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom.

The route's viability is also constrained by seasonal ice and environmental concerns. Reyes said Europe could benefit from a shorter route to Asia while becoming more dependent on a shipping corridor controlled by Russia, but he does not expect the Arctic to displace Suez, Al Jazeera reported.

The US and Israel's war on Iran began on February 28, prompting Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to almost all tankers, Al Jazeera reported. In peacetime, 20% of global oil and LNG exports pass through the Strait, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait ships more than 10% of global oil trade. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio projected a permanent geopolitical shift outside the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported.

While the Arctic route offers a potential alternative, experts caution that its role remains supplemental and tied to geopolitical and environmental factors, rather than a wholesale replacement for existing trade lanes.