California faces Colorado River water cuts under new federal plan

Arizona Threatens Lawsuit Over Colorado River Cuts as New Federal Plan Reduces Allocations

Arizona is threatening to sue the Trump administration over its plan to limit the state's access to the drought-stricken Colorado River, which supplies Phoenix—America's fifth-biggest city—with about 40 percent of its water. Officials in the Grand Canyon State say the cutbacks are based on a misunderstanding of Arizona's water rights and faulty legal reasoning.

Short-term reductions announced Friday would cost Arizona about one-third of the water it draws from the river over the next two years, with the possibility of a complete shutoff if drought conditions worsen.

“They are threatening to shut down the Southwest,” said Brenda Burman, general manager of the Central Arizona Project aqueduct system. “It's not possible to picture it.”

About 40 million people in seven western states rely on water from the Colorado River and its two largest reservoirs, Lakes Mead and Powell, which are now at record lows. Under the administration's plan, four upper-basin states—Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming—wouldn't face mandatory federal cutbacks that target Arizona, California, and Nevada.

Hardest hit, the NYT reported, would be the canals of the 330-mile Central Arizona Project, which supplies water to Phoenix, population 1.6 million, and the surrounding region.

The potentially dire situation resulted from an agreement under which the federal government spent billions of dollars to build the system, in exchange for it being among the first to face supply cuts during water shortages.

“It was the price we had to pay,” former Phoenix water director Kathryn Sorenson told the NYT. “The chickens have come home to roost.”

Earlier this month, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources sent a stinging letter to officials at the Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Land Reclamation, saying the state reserved its right to take the matter to “an appropriate judicial forum.”

In the letter, Tom Buschatzke wrote: “Arizona does not accept a framework that gives the federal government the discretion to select from a wide range of alternatives—including catastrophic cuts.”

Neither the Department of the Interior, the Bureau of Land Reclamation, nor the White House immediately returned inquiries from The Independent.

The Plan and Its Impact

The U.S. Department of the Interior released operating guidelines for the Colorado River for 2027 and 2028 on Friday, Aug. 21. The guidelines call for California, Arizona, and Nevada to collectively reduce their water allocations by 1.25 million acre-feet annually.

“These decisions provide a water management strategy for Basin stakeholders to respond to the prolonged drought by incorporating flexible tools and voluntary actions while leaving room for consensus agreements,” Andrea Travnicek, the department's assistant secretary for water and science, said in a statement.

In the West, the Colorado River plays a critical role, as seven basin states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) depend on it for water supply, hydropower production, recreation, fish and wildlife habitat, and other benefits, according to the Bureau of Reclamation.

Under the federal plan, Arizona will absorb the largest cut at 760,000 acre-feet annually, followed by California at 440,000 acre-feet and Nevada at 50,000 acre-feet. An acre-foot, or 326,000 gallons, is generally enough to meet the annual indoor and outdoor needs of three average households, according to the North Marin Water District.

The two-year plan is part of a broader 10-year framework meant to protect water supplies, hydropower, and reservoir operations amid ongoing drought conditions, the department said.

Record Lows at Lake Powell and Lake Mead

The Colorado River system supports more than 40 million people, 5.5 million acres of farmland, 30 tribal nations, and major hydropower facilities across the West, according to Interior officials. The Colorado River Basin has been experiencing “unprecedented drought” for the past 26 years, resulting in historically low runoff and reservoir levels.

After record-low snowpack during the 2025-2026 winter season, Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at some of their lowest levels since the Colorado River storage system was created. The combined contents of the two reservoirs have not been this low since before Lake Powell began filling following the closure of the gates at Glen Canyon Dam in 1963.

Previous agreements, including the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the 2019 Drought Contingency Plan, have not been sufficient to halt declining reservoir levels. Consensus efforts to reach new long-term operating guidelines fell short, and the parties could not reach a consensus before the current rules expire.

The department adopted a 10-year decision framework and will implement two-year operating guidelines beginning Oct. 1, 2026. The reduction outlined in the 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines is in line with what the three Lower Basin states had proposed earlier this year.

Reactions and Concerns

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said: “Any long-term solution must share responsibility fairly across all seven states.” J.B. Hamby, California's Colorado River commissioner, called the plan “a bridge, not a permanent solution.”

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs added: “Arizona's water is for Arizonans, and we need to fight to keep it that way.”

The 2027-2028 Operating Guidelines are the first rules issued under the 10-year framework. The guidelines call for the Lower Basin states to voluntarily conserve and store at least 700,000 acre-feet of water collectively over the two-year period. They also set up rules designed to help maintain Lake Powell at or above roughly 3,510 feet in elevation to protect operations at Glen Canyon Dam and preserve hydropower generation.

Starting in October, Lake Powell releases will be guided by hydrologic conditions and may be adjusted should drought conditions change. Under the guidelines, Upper Basin states are encouraged to work with Lower Basin states and tribes on operating key upstream reservoirs, including Flaming Gorge, Aspinall, and Navajo, to help protect infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam. Additionally, the guidelines expand water-storage options for the Lower Basin states, allowing conserved water to be preserved for future drought conditions. To help meet tribal obligations and reduce impacts on tribal water users, the guidelines provide a federally managed pool.

Historical Context and Local Voices

Historian Thomas Sheridan described the Central Arizona Project as “Arizona's holy grail.” Water from the Colorado River began flowing into Phoenix in 1985, and Congress authorized the Central Arizona Project in 1968. Former U.S. Rep. Eldon Rudd of Arizona warned at the system's opening: “The time is going to come in the not-too-distant future when we are going to be looking for water again, and today is the time to start looking for it.”

Water experts told the NYT that Phoenix and other Arizona cities that rely on the river are not in immediate danger of running out of water. However, losing access to river water will likely drive up the cost of replacing it and lead to more pumping of already-depleted groundwater that could threaten future generations.

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego has asked the federal government to help fund new purification plants to make wastewater safe to drink.

In Cave Creek, a town that gets 95 percent of its water from the Central Arizona Project, Mayor Robert Morris voiced deep concern. “Without Colorado River water, we would be a dusty little town with dirt roads,” he said. Morris said the town has hired a water consultant and made deals to buy water from nearby municipalities that should keep the taps running for the next five years.

Native American tribes hold Arizona's highest-priority water rights. Gabriel Lopez, chairman of the Ak-Chin Indian Community, expressed worry: “It's deeply concerning if this promise to us will once again be broken.”