Burnham may have to boost defence spending to pass ‘Moscow test’, says ex-military chief

Lead

The former head of the UK armed forces has told Andy Burnham that plans for defence spending must meet a “Moscow test” to keep Russian threats at bay, warning the UK currently “falls short” of that level of commitment. Adm Sir Tony Radakin, who served as chief of the defence staff until last year, said that if the government’s defence investment plan (Dip) was “not enough”, the probable next prime minister would have to find more funding before the general election.

The warning comes as criticism of the defence investment plan mounts. George Robertson, former Nato general secretary and leader of the government’s defence review, has called the plan insufficient and overly delayed, saying it damaged confidence in the defence industry and among Britain’s allies gathering in Ankara for the Nato summit.

Coverage comparison

The Guardian’s coverage of the story focuses on two distinct angles. One report highlights Radakin’s call for Burnham to raise defence spending to meet the “Moscow test”. The other centres on Lord Robertson’s criticism of the Dip as inadequate and belated. Both reports draw on direct quotes from their subjects and relate to the ongoing political debate over the UK’s defence investment.

Reporting on Radakin’s remarks notes that he told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme that the Dip must match the commitment to spend more on defence because the world was more dangerous, and the UK needed to be “stronger” in the 2030s. He said: “That’s the big issue, and whether it’s this prime minister or the next prime minister, if we get an announcement of additional money, well, we should always welcome that. But if it’s not enough, then it may be that the new prime minister is going to have to find that money as part of the course.”

The report on Robertson quotes him telling MPs on the defence select committee: “We built this strategic defence review based on an assessment of 10 years. That was our assessment at the time for when a peer opponent might challenge the United Kingdom. That clearly has now been accelerated, and quite simply we’re running out of years, and the reality is that the challenge is now bigger, more serious, and earlier than we had anticipated, and yet the defence investment plan itself doesn’t come up to it.”

Key claims

The ‘Moscow test’ and the UK’s current shortfall

Adm Sir Tony Radakin warned that the UK’s defence spending must meet the “Moscow test” to keep Russian threats at bay, and said the UK currently falls short of that level of commitment. He stressed that the Dip, expected to be published this week, must be accompanied by additional money, and if not, the next prime minister would have to secure more funding.

Criticism of the defence investment plan

George Robertson criticised the Dip as insufficient and overly delayed. The plan was published after nearly a year’s delay and shortly after the resignation of the former defence secretary John Healey. Robertson said defence companies would be disappointed, and “some companies will have gone bust in the process as they waited for the degree of certainty that was required in our view.” He also suggested that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, on his final foreign trip to the Nato summit in Ankara, might face a cool reception from allies who are spending more on defence, particularly Germany and Poland.

Funding figures and negotiations

According to reports, Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is believed to have already secured about £1bn more than his predecessor, John Healey, after intense negotiations between the Ministry of Defence (MoD) and the Treasury. Healey quit earlier this month after failing to secure more than £13.5bn to plug an £18bn gap in funding for the plan, which covers the department’s major capital programmes for the next 10 years. The government agreed to an additional £15bn for defence, but £4.7bn is still to be allocated. The cost of nuclear projects, including the Dreadnought nuclear submarine, is put at £41bn.

UK’s Nato standing

Lord Robertson noted that allies “are all now spending more on defence, and of course some of the bigger countries, like Germany and Poland, are spending considerably more than we are spending.” The reports also indicate the UK ranks second from the bottom in a Nato league table that ranks member states based on how they are meeting capability requirements.

Political implications for Burnham

The reports say little is known about Burnham’s thinking on defence, and there have been worries in the MoD that the former mayor of Greater Manchester would reopen any spending deal agreed in Keir Starmer’s final days. Allies of Burnham said such concerns were wide of the mark, adding they would rather the funding row – which has involved other departments taking a 1% cut to their capital budgets – be resolved and the Dip published now. But they added that he reserved the right to reopen it if needed.