Gold prices extended gains to hit their highest level in more than three months on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key US inflation data and a speech later this week by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,636.34 per ounce, as of 0015 GMT, its highest level since May 15, according to The Economic Times and Livemint. However, The Hindu Business Line reported spot gold up 0.5% at $4,627.42 per ounce as of 0155 GMT, after touching its highest level since May 15 earlier in the session. The difference in reported levels suggests slight intraday fluctuations.

Gold prices rose more than 5% last week after the US Treasury's buyback support plan pressured the dollar. A weaker US dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies, as reported by multiple outlets. The rally was also supported by renewed buying interest, softer bond yields, and improving liquidity conditions, according to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, as quoted by Business Standard, The Hindu Business Line, and The Times of India.

Market Catalysts: US Inflation Data and Fed Signals

Market participants will closely monitor the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this week for fresh clues on the US rate outlook. The symposium is scheduled for August 27-29, and analysts expect the first keynote address by Warsh to be pivotal. According to Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, “Traders will be listening closely for any shift in tone on the policy path and how it sits with recent bond-market developments. A balanced or cautious tone that leaves room for flexibility would likely keep the door open for gold to extend its gains.”

US Core PCE inflation and GDP figures are expected to be the key triggers for bullion prices, as reported by several Indian business outlets including Business Standard, Free Press Journal, and The Times of India. Geopolitical developments in West Asia, particularly the US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, will also remain in focus, according to the same sources.

Domestic and International Market Performance

On the domestic front, gold futures for October delivery gained ₹7,932, or 5.13%, to close the week at ₹1.62 lakh per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), as reported by Business Standard and The Hindu Business Line. Silver for September delivery surged ₹10,673, or 4.52%, to settle at ₹2.46 lakh per kilogram. These figures were echoed across the Times of India and Free Press Journal. On Monday, MCX silver futures for September 2026 delivery were down ₹1,782 to ₹2,44,815 per kg, while gold futures for October 2026 delivery rose by ₹1,000 to ₹1,63,434 per 10 grams, as reported by The Economic Times. In the last four sessions, gold has risen nearly ₹8,200 per 10 grams.

In international markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery rose $243.30, or 5.5%, to close at $4,680.60 per ounce, according to The Hindu Business Line. Silver futures for September delivery climbed $4.42, or nearly 7%, to $69.53 per ounce in New York. International spot gold closed above $4,620, ending with a weekly gain of more than 5%, as stated by analysts. The sharp mid-week price move was ignited by liquidity measures announced by the US Treasury Department to double down on its buyback of longer-dated bonds, according to multiple reports.

Analyst Outlook and Trade Recommendations

Analysts expect gold and silver to retain upward momentum next week, though profit-booking at higher levels could temper the rally. Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President at JMF Financial Services, said, “In the coming trading session, we expect bias to remain positive, but some profit can't be booked.” Jateen Trivedi added that “Gold remained firmly positive this week, gaining more than 5 per cent to close near 1.62 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX.”

Manoj Kumar Jain of Fourth Finmart expects bullion prices to remain volatile this week and provided support and resistance levels. According to The Economic Times, Jain sees gold support at $4,610-$4,585 and resistance at $4,700-$4,740 per ounce, while silver has support at $68.10-$66.60 and resistance at $70.20-$71.20. On the MCX, gold support is at ₹1,61,100-1,59,800 and resistance at ₹1,63,600-1,64,850; silver support at ₹2,44,000-2,41,200 and resistance at ₹2,49,100-2,52,500. He recommends buying gold around ₹1,60,600-1,59,500 with a stop-loss below ₹1,57,700 and target ₹1,63,600-1,64,850, and buying silver around ₹2,44,000-2,41,000 with a stop loss below ₹2,37,000 and target ₹2,49,000-2,52,400.

Geopolitical and Trade Tensions

On the geopolitical front, the US threatened Iran with what it described as “the greatest financial offensive ever marshalled” as it prepared to introduce economic sanctions targeting Iran's trade partners, as reported by The Economic and the Ethereum by The Hindu Business. Iran's foreign minister dismissed the threat of new US sanctions as a sign of desperation and said the expected new measures would fail to defeat Tehran, a claim reported by The Economic Times and other internationals. Meanwhile, on the trade front, Canada will impose tariffs on some U.S. goods in retaliation for 50% levies ordered by President Donald Trump on Canadian products, Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Saturday, after trade talks between the two neighbors collapsed, according to Barron's elsewhere.

Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel as investors booked profits ahead of the expected sanctions announcement. Among other precious metals, spot silver gained 0.8% at $69.51 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $1,885.38, and palladium up 0.1% to $1,350.53, as per The New Indian Express; while The Hindu saw spot silver fell 0.3% to $68.76, platinum lost 0.5% to $1,868.03, and palladium off 3% at $1,345.87. The divergence in these metals is noteworthy.

Perspectives

Analysts and Traders: Market analyst Tim Waterer at KCM Trade sees gold as “sprightly” and expects it to extend gains if Fed Chair cautions a tone. Pranav Mer and Jateen Trived (commodity researchers) believe in upward momentum with profit-booking a possibility.

Federal Reserve and US officials: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's forthcoming speech at Jackson Hole will be crucial, with quoted Fed statements pending. Officials including Mark Carney (Prime Minister of Canada) and Iran's foreign minister – provided separate viewpoints on sanctions and trade, affecting safe-haven demand.

Investors and Central Banks: Poland's central bank has been increasing gold reserves, from 20.3 million to 20.6 million troy ounces, showing official sector support. Goldman Sachs forecast gold to reach $4,900, citing options demand.

This assessment aligns with multiple reports, though conflicting international spot gold figures indicate varying levels; however, the general trend is high, as indicated by weekly gains above 5%.