Britain's Defence Vulnerabilities Highlighted
A former British Army intelligence officer has warned that Britain's Armed Forces would struggle to repel waves of Russian drones if President Vladimir Putin ordered an attack. Philip Ingram said UK military bases would be "most vulnerable" to such an assault, and that the country has "no capability really to deal with a mass drone threat." He also expressed concerns over Britain's anti-missile defences.
Speaking to the Daily Express, Mr Ingram outlined potential Russian strategies, including amassing missile-armed ships in the Atlantic off the Irish coast or replicating Ukraine's "Operation Spider's Web" by smuggling explosive drones into British ports.
CIA Chief's Moscow Visit Raises NATO Concerns
The warnings come amid reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe used a surprise visit to Moscow to warn Russia against attacking NATO, particularly the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. A US official told Politico that the "meeting was primarily to warn Russia against any escalatory action against the Baltic states." American intelligence has previously suggested Russia could be planning an attack on NATO territory to test the alliance's resolve.
Grey-Zone Threats and Putin's Calculations
Mr Ingram said any Russian attack would likely fall within the "grey-zone"—actions below the threshold of armed conflict—such as cyberattacks or sabotage. He described such an incident as "100% likely," but added that a conventional assault was unlikely. "Putin is not stupid," Mr Ingram said. "He's not going to attack NATO in a conventional way, unless he's gone completely bonkers—which he might have done."
He suggested that US intelligence may have detected an increase in traffic indicating Russia is set to escalate grey-zone activity, and that the CIA chief's visit might have been to signal that the US would respond if Russia crossed certain lines. Mr Ingram noted that Putin's military assets are largely tied up in Ukraine, limiting his ability to launch a conventional attack.
Broader Context: Russian Pressure and Potential Responses
The situation is set against a backdrop of mounting domestic pressure on Putin. Ukraine's deep strikes with long-range drones have hammered Russia's energy industry, causing long queues for petrol and billowing smoke from stricken oil refineries. The Kremlin views these attacks as NATO fighting an indirect war via Ukraine.
Possible Russian responses include stepping up ballistic missile attacks on Ukraine, including targeting the centre of Kyiv, knowing Ukraine is running low on Patriot interceptors. Putin may be aware of US President Donald Trump's periodic disdain for NATO, potentially calculating that a low-key attack on, say, Lithuania, might not trigger Article 5 mutual defence. The CIA chief's mission to Moscow may have been partly to remind Russia that the US remains fully committed to Article 5.
Lithuania holds strategic significance due to the Suwalki Gap, a 60-mile border between Poland and Lithuania separating Russia's client state Belarus from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Russian military doctrine considers tactical nuclear weapons an integral part of its arsenal, and Moscow has been warned not to break the taboo on using them.
Russian Intentions and Casualties
A Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman said Moscow could strike British military targets in retaliation for Ukrainian strikes using British missiles. A drone carrying an explosive discovered at an airport in Leipzig was likely Russian, according to security experts.
Ukrainian intelligence believes the Kremlin could mobilise up to half a million people after Russia's parliamentary elections next month, though Moscow's forces have yet to make a breakthrough in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region. Russia is believed to be suffering more than 30,000 casualties each month, increasing pressure on Putin to show progress in the war as its effects are increasingly felt by ordinary Russians.