Brexit at 10: the promises, the costs and the search for accountability

Lead

Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, a wide-ranging review of coverage from Al Jazeera, France 24, and RFI paints a picture of a nation still grappling with the consequences. On June 23, 2016, the Leave campaign won with 51.9% of the vote, a result that reshaped the UK's economy, society, and political landscape. The promised benefits of Brexit—sovereignty, control, and prosperity—have largely failed to materialize, according to the reports, while the EU has moved forward with renewed integration.

Coverage Comparison

The coverage across the three outlets converges on several key points: the economy has underperformed, migration has not decreased, and public sentiment has soured. Al Jazeera's reporting emphasizes the economic and social costs, with one piece noting that the UK economy has shrunk by 6% since the referendum, citing a Bank of England analysis. France 24 takes a closer look at the town of Boston, which voted 75% for Leave and has since seen many residents change their minds. RFI focuses on the EU's relative unity post-Brexit, quoting experts who argue the bloc has integrated further without the UK.

However, there are nuances. Al Jazeera also features a piece highlighting that some Britons still believe in the benefits of Brexit, with University of Cambridge professor Robert Tombs defending the decision on grounds of sovereignty and democracy. France 24's empathetic tone is grounded in personal stories from Boston, while RFI's analytical framing draws on expert commentary about the UK's 'crisis of political imagination.'

Key Claims

• The UK economy has lagged behind the EU's since Brexit. Multiple reports from Al Jazeera, France 24, and RFI note slower growth and weaker trade, with Al Jazeera citing a Bank of England analysis indicating the economy has shrunk by 6%.
• Migration to the UK has not decreased as promised by the Leave campaign. Al Jazeera reports that migration is higher than before, while France 24 notes that EU citizens no longer have visa-free work rights, leading to a shift to non-EU workers.
• The value of the pound has not returned to pre-Brexit levels, as reported by Al Jazeera.
• Nigel Farage's party, Reform UK, has gained popularity. France 24 and RFI both note that the party, led by the face of the Brexit campaign, is leading in polls or gaining support.
• The EU has emerged more united since Brexit. RFI quotes Federico Fabbrini, founding director of the Brexit Institute, who points to joint borrowing, coordinated sanctions, and renewed defence and energy cooperation.
• The town of Boston voted overwhelmingly to Leave, with 75% of ballots cast for 'Leave' in the referendum, as reported by France 24. Many residents there have since changed their minds.
• The Leave campaign's promises have not materialized—a claim repeated across all three outlets, with Al Jazeera noting that migration is higher and the economy smaller than it would have been.
• A majority of Britons now believe leaving the EU was the wrong decision. Al Jazeera reports a YouGov poll showing 57% think it was wrong, with six in 10 judging Brexit a failure.
• The UK's society has become more divided since Brexit. Al Jazeera and RFI both describe increased polarisation and a reshaping of political culture.

Perspectives

Brexit Supporters

Robert Tombs, a University of Cambridge professor and Brexit supporter, argues that the case for Brexit remains the same: sovereignty, democracy, and taking back control. He maintains that Britain has always been more closely tied to countries outside the EU, and he blames successive governments for failing to maximise the benefits of leaving. Tombs also notes that the negative predictions of 'project fear' have not fully materialised.

Brexit Critics

Federico Fabbrini, founding director of the Brexit Institute, calls the project 'empirically a failure'—economically, socially, and politically. Colin Hay, professor of political science at Sciences Po, describes a 'certain amount of buyer's remorse.' Critics point to the economy shrinking by 6%, migration not falling, and society more divided. They argue the promised future never arrived.

A Town's Regret

France 24's reporting on Boston, the town that voted most in favour of Leave, shows many residents feel politicians lied or mishandled the aftermath. The report highlights a clear sense that Brexit hasn't produced the desired effects, with labour issues and complicated trade as tangible consequences.

EU's Silver Lining

Fabbrini, in RFI's coverage, argues that the EU has emerged more united since Brexit, with unprecedented joint borrowing and closer cooperation in areas like defence and energy. The departure of the UK has allowed the EU to move forward in ways that might not have been possible before.