Lead
Ten years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union on June 23, 2016, the decision remains deeply divisive, with supporters and critics still at odds over its political and economic legacy. Recent analyses from France 24 and RFI paint a picture of economic damage and persistent social tension, while acknowledging the arguments made by Brexit advocates.
Coverage comparison
France 24's report focuses on the economic consequences, citing economists who estimate Brexit has reduced the UK's gross domestic product by as much as 8 percent. It also notes that 23 percent of leave voters now regret their choice, either because they have changed their mind on Europe or feel that politicians mishandled the exit process. The report quotes Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King's College London, who says there is a clear consensus among economists that Brexit has done significant damage.
RFI's coverage, part of a series marking the anniversary, includes an interview with John Barry, professor of Green Political Economy at Queen's University Belfast, a staunch opponent of Brexit. Barry calls Brexit a disaster and argues it was a political decision motivated by anti-immigration rhetoric. He also references the Office for Budget Responsibility's calculation that the British economy is between 6 percent and 8 percent smaller than it would have been without leaving the EU.
Key claims
Both outlets report that economists estimate Brexit has reduced the UK's GDP by as much as 8 percent. This figure is attributed to studies including one from Stanford's Institute for Economic Policy Research, which used two models: a comparison of UK growth with other countries, factoring in global shocks like Covid-19 and wars, and an analysis of UK firms' performance based on their level of interaction with the EU. Gregory Thwaites, associate professor of economics at the University of Nottingham and one of the study's authors, says the economy is about 8 percent smaller than it would have been without Brexit.
France 24 reports that the average Briton is up to 8 percent poorer than if Brexit had never happened, and that this translates into a loss in tax revenue for public services. The report also mentions that UK food exports to the EU have shrunk by nearly a quarter and that Brexit has contributed significantly to UK food price inflation.
RFI's interview with Barry includes his claim that the average British citizen has lost over £3,000 a year. He criticizes the "£350 million a week" claim made by Brexit campaigners, calling it empirically incorrect. Barry also argues that Brexit restored sovereignty in the sense that the UK is no longer bound by EU law, but he frames this as a trade-off with economic decline.
Perspectives
Brexit opponents: Economists and critics like Jonathan Portes and John Barry argue that Brexit has inflicted significant economic damage, reducing growth and living standards, and that the promised benefits have not materialized.
Brexit advocates: RFI's interview references an advocate's view that Brexit restored sovereignty and that the UK is no longer bound by EU law, though this perspective is not elaborated in the provided material.