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BP profits more than double as oil and gas prices surge amid Middle East conflict

BP reported a 130% jump in first-quarter profits to $3.2bn, driven by "exceptional" oil trading results. The surge followed rising energy prices after the US-Israeli war on Iran began and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. The jump drew sharp criticism from campaign groups while analysts and the IEA weighed impacts on the market and consumer bills.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 outlet · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Apr 14–28, 2026 Published Aug 13

BP's quarterly profits more than doubled in early 2024, driven by higher oil and gas prices as the Middle East conflict disrupted supply routes and boosted trading gains. The energy major on Tuesday reported first-quarter underlying replacement-cost profit of $3.2 billion, up more than 130% from $1.38 billion a year earlier and well ahead of analyst forecasts of $2.67 billion.

Profit surge and criticism

BP attributed the jump to an "exceptional oil trading result" as its trading desk profited from volatile markets after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane, amid the US-Israeli war on Iran. The profits, reported under new chief executive Meg O'Neill, immediately drew fire from campaign groups. Global Witness investigations chief Patrick Galey said it was "horrifying" to watch BP's earnings swell while millions weather the costs of the conflict. Greenpeace UK's climate campaigner Maya Darlington said the war had been "an entirely predictable catastrophe for everyone except the oil industry."

War-driven market swings

Crude prices had risen rapidly since the conflict began in late February, with global benchmark Brent reaching $119.50 a barrel several weeks before settlement, per Reuters. On Tuesday, Brent was trading at $110.68 a barrel, its highest since April 7th, when the ceasefire was agreed between the US and Iran. BP said refining margins had improved and its "oil trading result is expected to be exceptional" in the first quarter.

Analysts had been upgrading forecasts. Citi raised its estimate for BP's adjusted net income for the January-March quarter to $2.6 billion, a 20% increase; JPMorgan expected prices to hold above $100 a barrel in the second quarter, while Goldman Sachs cut its forecast to an average of $90 from $99.

Global supply and demand

The International Energy Agency trimmed its 2024 oil demand forecast to a fall of 80,000 barrels a day, versus the previous month's forecast of a rise of 640,000, which would also mark the first annual decline since the 2020 Covid pandemic. The Paris-based IEA said global supply fell by more than 10 million barrels a day in March to 97 million and that continued attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East were poised to further erode market stability.

Household bills

Consumer groups noted the knock-on effect at home: household energy bills are set to reach nearly £2,000 from July when the next quarterly gas and electricity price cap comes into effect. The first article in the British newspaper The Guardian reported that analysts' expectations had been surpassed by the profit surge, and warned of the effect of high fuel prices on households and airlines and of the risk of disruption.

How this outlet told it

A framing line is our reading of that outlet's own text — an interpretation, not a quotation and not a fact we assert. Check it against what the outlet published.

The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC

Framing: Our reading BP expects exceptional earnings from oil trading — Neutral

Facts Included:

BP expects to post exceptional earnings from its oil trading desk
Energy traders are navigating significant market volatility after Tehran's effective closure of the key strait of Hormuz shipping route
BP's refining margins had strengthened
Brent crude has risen sharply from about $61 a barrel in January
Analysts have been upgrading their profit forecasts for BP

Read the source article →

The Guardian — World as of Apr 28, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC

Framing: Our reading BP's profits soar amid conflict and criticism — Critical

Facts Included:

BP's quarterly profits have more than doubled
Underlying profits for the first quarter were $3.2bn
BP's customers and products division reported profits of $2.5bn
Household bills are forecast to reach nearly £2,000 from July

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

AI-extracted; can misattribute a claim — see Methodology.

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimBP expects to post exceptional earnings from its oil trading desk, reaping a windfall from choppy energy markets triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimEnergy traders are navigating significant market volatility after Tehran's effective closure of the key strait of Hormuz shipping route.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimBP's refining margins had strengthened and the oil trading result is expected to be exceptional in the first quarter of its financial year.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimBrent crude has risen sharply from about $61 a barrel in January.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimAnalysts have been upgrading their profit forecasts for BP.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimBP's quarterly profits have more than doubled after a jump in oil and gas prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 28, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimUnderlying profits for the first quarter were $3.2bn, up by more than 130% from $1.38bn in the equivalent period a year ago.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 28, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimBP's customers and products division reported profits of $2.5bn, compared with $1.4bn in the previous quarter and just $103m a year ago.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 28, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimHousehold bills are forecast to reach nearly £2,000 from July, when the next quarterly price cap for gas and electricity charges comes into effect.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 28, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
ClaimThe International Energy Agency cut its forecasts for global oil demand this year.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimOil demand is now forecast to fall by 80,000 barrels a day this year, whereas last month the IEA forecast demand would rise by 640,000.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC
ClaimGlobal oil supply plummeted by more than 10m barrels of oil a day in March, to 97m.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Guardian — World as of Apr 14, 2026, 10:45 AM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 outlet · 2 articles consulted: The Guardian — World 12 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-13