BOK expected to raise S. Korea's 2026 growth estimate to over 3 pct: experts

Experts Expect BOK to Raise 2026 Growth Outlook to Over 3 Percent

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to raise its growth outlook for the South Korean economy this year to over 3 percent, according to economic experts surveyed by Yonhap News Agency. The expectation, reported Sunday, is attributed to stronger-than-expected semiconductor exports and recovering domestic demand.

A Yonhap survey of six economic analysts found that respondents expect the BOK to revise its 2026 growth outlook from the current 2.6 percent to as high as 3.4 percent.

"Given the stronger-than-expected exports led by semiconductors, increased government expenditure driven by higher tax revenues and a rebound in domestic demand, the country is likely to achieve economic growth of around 3 percent this year," said Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., projecting 3.2 percent growth.

Other analysts gave similar estimates of around 3.1 to 3.2 percent, with the highest forecast coming from Nomura Securities at 3.4 percent. Park Jeong-woo, an economist at Nomura, said, "The BOK could take into consideration the semiconductor boom and the government's expansionary fiscal policy. We expect the central bank to sharply raise the growth forecasts for this year and next year."

The experts' outlooks for the following year were between 2.2 percent and 2.8 percent, according to the survey.

Semiconductor Supercycle

Most respondents expressed confidence that the semiconductor supercycle would continue to drive upward momentum for the South Korean economy, citing a supply-demand mismatch in the global semiconductor market. The view reflects expectations that robust chip demand, particularly from artificial intelligence (AI) applications, will sustain export growth.

"While the demand for AI inference is growing exponentially, the pace of semiconductor supply is relatively slow. A supply crunch is likely to continue longer, beyond 2027," said Park Jeong-woo.

However, Joo Won, deputy director of economic research at Hyundai Research Institute, offered a cautionary note, pointing out that August chip exports dropped from a month earlier. He suggested the semiconductor supercycle could peak out sooner than expected, a warning that tempers the prevailing optimism.

Account Surplus and Inflation

The survey also touched on expectations for the BOK's other economic indicators. Most experts agreed the central bank could sharply raise its account surplus estimate from the $250 billion announced in May. South Korea's account surplus for the first half of 2026 has already to" topped last year's annual tally of $191 billion, which was the highest on record.

Regarding inflation, experts widely expected the BOK to maintain its inflation rate estimate of 2.7 percent announced in May. Inflationary pressures from rising oil prices and a high won-dollar exchange rate were cited as reasons for keeping the estimate unchanged.