Bernstein Sets $140 Circle Stock Price Target, Says Growth Does Not Depend on CLARITY Act

Bernstein Reaffirms Bullish Stance on Circle

Analysts at Bernstein remain optimistic about stablecoin issuer Circle, arguing that a new growth cycle for its USDC stablecoin could provide a significant boost for the company over the next 12 months. In a research note published Monday, the firm maintained an Outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) and a $140 price target, implying roughly 60% upside from current levels.

USDC Supply Surge Signals 'Digital Dollar Reflation'

Bernstein said USDC is showing signs of what it called “digital dollar reflation” after its supply increased by roughly $2 billion in seven days, reversing a six-month stretch of stagnant or declining growth. The firm’s central argument focuses on issuance acceleration: a $2 billion increase in USDC supply over just one week suggests demand for dollar-denominated on-chain settlement is picking up again.

Although USDC remains the second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin by market capitalization, well behind Tether’s USDt, Bernstein noted that USDC has gained significant ground in transaction activity. The firm said USDC’s share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from roughly 40% in 2025 to more than 60% so far in 2026, overtaking USDt by that measure.

Growth Drivers Beyond the CLARITY Act

Bernstein said its investment thesis does not depend on Congress passing the CLARITY Act during the Senate’s September session. The legislation seeks to establish a broader U.S. regulatory framework for digital asset markets and clarify oversight between federal regulators. “We believe this growth cycle is independent of the Clarity Act passing in the September session,” the analysts wrote.

The firm expects regulatory agencies to move faster on crypto rules if lawmakers fail to advance the legislation before the scheduled September 15 vote. Bernstein identified stablecoin payments, tokenization, blockchain-based capital markets, and agent-based payments as potential sources of further USDC adoption. The analysts also pointed to early signs of stablecoin use in payments made by artificial intelligence agents.

Circle's Stock Performance and Financials

Circle shares have experienced significant swings since the company went public in June 2025. The stablecoin issuer priced its shares at $31 and raised roughly $1.1 billion in its initial public offering. After surging in the months following its debut, the stock had fallen back toward its IPO price by November 2025 as a broader crypto market downturn weighed on publicly traded companies with exposure to the sector.

More recently, Circle’s stock has risen roughly 40% over the past month, and was trading at $89.20 at the time of writing, up 1.39%, giving the company a market capitalization of about $22.64 billion. The stock recently gained more than 5% in a single session after facing pressure during a broader market decline.

In its most recent quarter, Circle reported second-quarter revenue of $701 million, up 7% from a year earlier but slightly below analyst forecasts. Net income reached $48 million, while earnings per share came in at $0.18 and exceeded market expectations.

Looking Ahead

Bernstein’s outlook suggests that the next phase of stablecoin growth could be driven by several factors, including renewed momentum in crypto markets, greater regulatory clarity in the United States, tokenized capital markets and growing adoption of stablecoins for payments. While the CLARITY Act remains a potential catalyst, Bernstein’s analysis indicates that the company’s growth trajectory may not hinge on legislative timing.