Bennett losing ground as Eisenkot, Netanyahu neck-and-neck for upcoming elections - poll

Lead

As Israel approaches its October 27, 2026 elections, recent polling suggests a tightening race at the top, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! party each projected to secure 23 seats if elections were held today. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's "Together" party continues to lose ground, recording its lowest seat count yet in recent surveys.

Coverage Comparison

Three polls published by the Jerusalem Post over the past month—conducted by Channel 13 News and Maariv/Lazar Research—paint a consistent picture of the electoral landscape. The most recent, published on August 7, 2026, showed the seat distribution unchanged from the previous week, with Likud and Yashar! tied at 23 seats each. A Channel 13 News poll published on July 30, 2026, also showed the same tie at 23 seats, marking an increase of two seats for each party compared to the previous week's poll. An earlier Maariv poll from July 17, 2026, showed the two parties tied at 22 seats each.

Bennett's decline is a notable trend across these polls. The July 30 Channel 13 poll gave his party just 13 seats, described as his lowest result to date in that channel's polls. The August 7 Maariv poll also indicated that Bennett and Eisenkot continue to lead Netanyahu in head-to-head questions about suitability to serve as prime minister.

The overall bloc arithmetic has remained relatively stable. The July 30 poll gave the opposition bloc 60 seats, compared to 51 for the coalition, with Arab parties winning a combined nine seats. The August 7 poll showed the coalition retaining 49 seats, with Zionist opposition parties at 57 and the Zionist Home party holding four seats, which could provide a 61-seat majority if combined. The July 17 poll projected a similar outcome, with the opposition bloc expected to gain 62 seats and the current coalition projected to fall to 48.

The August 7 poll also noted that the Democrats, an opposition party, failed to return to double digits after losing two seats, falling to nine. This slide places them below the level they recorded before the party's primaries.

Additional details from the July 30 Channel 13 poll indicate that Yisrael Beytenu, led by Avigdor Liberman, would receive 10 seats, followed by the Democrats with nine, tying with United Torah Judaism. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, would receive eight seats, while Shas would take seven. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is projected at five seats, as is the Bayit Tzioni party led by Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper. Hadash-Ta'al would receive four seats, and the Religious Zionist Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich, also received four, but dropped by one. Benny Gantz's Blue and White party and Balad would remain below the electoral threshold.

Key Claims

• Electoral Projections: If elections were held today, Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot would each lead with 23 seats, according to polls conducted by Channel 13 News and Maariv. The July 17 Maariv poll had them tied at 22 seats.
• Bennett's Decline: Naftali Bennett's party continues to lose ground, receiving just 13 seats in the Channel 13 News poll of July 30, described as his lowest result to date in that channel's polls.
• Voter Certainty: Forty-nine percent of voters said they were certain they would vote for the opposition bloc, 35% for the coalition bloc, 10% remained undecided, and 6% identified as voters who move between the blocs (Channel 13 News poll, July 30).
• Suitability for Prime Minister: Eisenkot held a significant lead over Netanyahu, 47% to 36%, on the question of suitability to serve as prime minister (Channel 13 News poll, July 30). The August 7 Maariv poll also found that both Bennett and Eisenkot lead Netanyahu in this measure.
• Haredi Parties in Coalition: 83% of voters oppose the inclusion of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties in the coalition formed after the elections, while only 8% support it (Maariv poll, July 17).
• Arab Party in Coalition: 70% of voters support adding an Arab party to the coalition after elections, while 10% oppose the move and 20% have no opinion or say it doesn't matter (Maariv poll, July 17). Opposing views on Ra'am: 55% of Israelis oppose including Ra'am in a future coalition, even if Yoav Segalovitz is placed second on the party's Knesset list; 20% support the move, and 25% have no opinion (Maariv poll, August 7).
• Government Performance: Only 38% of voters believe the current government can make the right decisions for Israel, while 55% think it won't (Maariv poll, July 17).
• Gaza Road Map: 54% of Israelis oppose the published road map for an agreement in Gaza, with opposition rising to 72% among voters for coalition parties. Twenty-four percent support the plan, while 22% have no opinion (Maariv poll, August 7).

Perspectives

The polls reflect distinct viewpoints among Israeli voters on key coalition questions. A large majority (83%) oppose including Haredi parties in the next governing coalition, while a similarly large majority (70%) support adding an Arab party to the coalition. This apparent contradiction is notable: while voters are open to Arab party participation, a separate poll shows that a majority (55%) specifically oppose including Ra'am, the Arab party led by Mansour Abbas, in a future coalition, even with the proposed placement of Yoav Segalovitz as second on its list.

Regarding the ongoing conflict in Gaza, a majority (54%) oppose the published road map for an agreement, with even stronger opposition among coalition supporters (72%).

On leadership, voters express clear preferences: Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by a significant margin in suitability to serve as prime minister, and both Bennett and Eisenkot outperform Netanyahu in this measure according to the August 7 poll.