Opposition merger could yield 61-seat bloc without Arab parties, poll suggests

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A new poll suggests that a three-way merger of opposition parties could produce a 61-seat bloc capable of forming a government without relying on Arab parties. The Maariv poll, published Thursday, tested scenarios in which the Together Party of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar!, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu ran as a single joint list. The strongest result came when Eisenkot led the combined slate, which received 49 seats — the same total the three parties received when running separately. According to the poll, that would bring the opposition bloc to exactly 61 seats, giving it a parliamentary majority without the support of the predominantly Arab parties, which hold 10 seats.

Coverage comparison

The poll results were reported by the Jerusalem Post, which noted that the coalition bloc rose to 51 seats while the opposition fell to 59 in the standard three-party split. The same poll showed the Religious Zionist Party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, crossing the electoral threshold for the first time in nearly six months, a development that offset losses by Likud and Shas and strengthened the overall coalition. The poll was conducted just before the coalition's bill to dissolve the Knesset passed its preliminary reading, a timing that may have influenced the results.

Other recent surveys, including those by KAN 11 and Walla, have shown similar trends. A KAN 11 poll published May 13 found Likud at 26 seats and Together at 25, while a Walla poll from late April had Likud leading with 28 seats and Together at 27. The Walla poll also showed Eisenkot's party rising from 12 to 15 seats, positioning him as a central player in the opposition camp. All three polls have consistently shown the opposition unable to reach a 61-seat majority without the Arab parties, but the Maariv merger scenario changes that picture.

Key claims

The most striking finding is that a Bennett-Eisenkot-Liberman alliance could secure a 61-seat majority, which would allow the opposition to form a government without relying on Arab parties. This claim, carried by a single outlet (the Maariv poll as reported by the Jerusalem Post), has yet to be independently verified by other surveys. The poll also found that the coalition bloc strengthened to 51 seats, while the opposition fell to 59, figures that align with the Walla poll from late April. Both polls reported the Arab parties holding steady at 10 seats.

Regarding individual leaders, a Lazar Research poll published on May 1 showed that both Bennett and Eisenkot had surpassed Netanyahu on the question of suitability for prime minister. Nearly half of respondents (46%) considered Bennett suitable, 44% backed Eisenkot, and only 41% supported Netanyahu. When Eisenkot was placed head-to-head against Bennett, the results were nearly tied, with 33% choosing Eisenkot and 32% Bennett, and 35% undecided. The same poll showed that the public was divided on whether Eisenkot should join Together, with 34% in favor, 30% opposed, and 36% uncertain.

The merger scenarios tested by Maariv also included alternatives with Liberman or Bennett at the head of the joint list, but those results were not detailed in the available reporting. The strong performance of the Eisenkot-led slate suggests that his military background and centrist appeal could be an electoral asset for the opposition.

Perspectives

From the perspective of the opposition, the poll results offer a potential path to power. Bennett and Lapid have already merged their parties into Together, and they have publicly courted Eisenkot to join them. The Maariv scenario suggests that adding Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu — a party with a strong base among Russian-speaking immigrants and a secular, hawkish profile — could tip the balance. However, the poll also indicates that the opposition's gains would come at the expense of its own constituent parties, as the joint list would not gain additional seats beyond what the three parties receive separately.

From the coalition's perspective, the strengthening of the bloc to 51 seats, driven by the Religious Zionist Party's resurgence, provides some comfort despite Likud's continued slide. The coalition's ability to hold together, however, remains fragile. The KAN 11 poll from May 13 highlighted a dispute over haredi draft legislation, with Netanyahu pushing to advance a bill extending military service without simultaneously advancing a haredi enlistment bill. Haredi parties viewed this as a breach of coalition understandings and threatened to begin dismantling the government. This internal tension could weaken the coalition in the run-up to an election.

The Arab parties' position, unchanged at 10 seats, remains a wildcard. While the opposition merger scenario would allow a government to be formed without them, any future coalition may still need their support for other legislative initiatives. The Arab parties have historically not been included in coalition governments, but their role as potential kingmakers or as a permanent opposition bloc continues to shape Israeli politics.