US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses: Renewed Strikes and Threats Escalate Conflict
A tenuous ceasefire between the United States and Iran has collapsed barely a month after the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on June 17. The agreement, which had raised hopes of de-escalation, unravelled on July 8, and the worst fighting in months has since erupted, according to Al Jazeera. American airstrikes and Iranian retaliation have resumed, threatening to plunge the region back into full-scale conflict.
President Donald Trump has ramped up US air strikes on Iran and threatened broader escalation, according to the South China Morning Post. The collapse of the interim deal has left Washington in a bind as it seeks to break Iran's grip on the vital Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran to accept its demands. While both sides have so far avoided a return to full-scale war, hopes of finding an off-ramp any time soon have faded, the report added.
Trump has also announced the resumption of the blockade, and Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by Dawn. The US president has notified Congress that the conflict with Iran is on. The escalation comes a day after the delayed funeral of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war on February 28, and has stoked public anger in Iran, with many calling for revenge.
Trump's Tactical U-Turns and the Toll Proposal
The conflict has entered a "new, murkier phase," according to The Guardian, with Trump's objectives and methods clouded in confusion and daily U-turns. In a striking example, Trump proposed charging tolls for clearing the Strait of Hormuz, but almost immediately abandoned the idea after a revolt from shipping firms, members of his own administration, and regional states. The White House had initially insisted the 20% toll was a serious plan, but hours later it was jettisoned.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued that such tolls are not compatible with international law, as noted by The Guardian. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has passed a motion reaffirming that passage through the Strait of Hormuz should remain free of any tolls and charges. Many workable alternatives exist, including models based on the Strait of Malacca or the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, both discussed by the IMO. Iran and Oman, the two littoral states, are willing to engage on these, but the Washington policymaking machinery has offered no proposal of its own.
Threats to Broader Escalation
Iran has signalled it could prod its Houthi allies in Yemen to close another vital oil-shipping strait — the Bab al-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea — if Washington hits Iran's power infrastructure, as Trump has threatened, according to the South China Morning Post. Trump has also discussed with aides, and in some cases spoken publicly, about potentially expanding targets to include energy plants and bridges, sending ground forces to seize Iran's Kharg Island oil hub, and bombing a deep-underground nuclear-linked site known as Pickaxe Mountain. Some of these options may be unrealistic due to high risks and potential for domestic and geopolitical blowback, the report added.
Rising Oil Prices and Global Impact
The renewed fighting has driven up global oil prices, potentially approaching $90 a barrel, according to The Guardian and France 24. This could have significant political consequences for Trump, possibly affecting the US midterm elections. France 24 noted that crude has climbed to four-week highs as missiles fly across the Gulf.
Regime Change Back on the Table
The failure of diplomatic efforts has renewed interest in regime change in Washington, according to the Jerusalem Post, citing an analysis by the Financial Times' Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator Gideon Rachman. Elements of the Trump administration are reportedly considering economic, political, and potentially covert measures aimed at destabilizing the Iranian government. Regime change had been among Washington and Jerusalem's original ambitions when the war began, but the administration initially hoped military pressure could trigger a popular uprising. That expectation was not realized, and regime change was placed on the back burner in favour of negotiations. The collapse of those efforts has now brought it back into discussions.
The analysis cautions that any attempt to topple the regime would carry substantial risks, as Iran has survived decades of sanctions, internal protests, covert operations, and external pressures.
A Cycle of War and Negotiation
The conflict has followed a pattern of war, talks, televised signing ceremonies, and return to hostilities, raising questions about the effectiveness of such cycles, as France 24 noted. The latest hostilities were apparently triggered by strikes by Iran's Revolutionary Guard on two tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz for failing to follow instructions, according to Dawn. There may be an element of truth to the argument that Iran, by targeting Qatari and Saudi tankers, has overplayed its leverage, but it is also a fact that Iran's action was provoked by the US attempt to guide commercial ships via the Omani route. For Iran, control of the strategic strait has become a key source of leverage, with one official quoted as saying it is more important than "dozens of atomic bombs."
The situation remains half-war, half-peace, keeping the world on edge, as Dawn described. The latest developments have made it far harder to reach a negotiated peace deal.