Australians are spending less to consume more nicotine as illegal tobacco trade explodes

Lead

Australians are consuming more nicotine than they were eight years ago but spending less on it, according to new experimental estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The data, released on Wednesday, shows that an estimated 80 per cent of the cigarettes and vapes consumed in Australia last year were illegal products, up from just 12 per cent in 2017.

Nicotine consumption increased by almost 40 per cent between 2017 and 2025, despite population growth of just 14 per cent, the ABS analysis found. The growth was driven by a large rise in illicit cigarettes as well as increases in e-cigarettes and other nicotine products.

The figures are the first time the ABS has provided estimates on illegal tobacco consumption, after it began developing methods to assess how the economic impact of the trade would be treated in Australia’s national accounts. The estimates, which were assisted by nicotine metabolite concentrations detected in wastewater samples, are described as experimental and could change as methods and data sources evolve.

Coverage comparison

The findings were reported by ABC Australia and The Guardian, both highlighting the scale of the black market and its link to government excise policy. ABC Australia’s coverage emphasised the "rapid growth" of the illicit market, with a Deakin University criminologist calling the numbers "absolutely staggering" and a "massive policy failure". The Guardian’s reporting focused on the paradox of Australians consuming more nicotine while spending less, with household spending on cigarettes dropping to levels similar to those seen in 2016.

Both outlets noted that the cost of legal cigarettes had tripled since 2016, while the price of illegal tobacco products had remained relatively constant. They attributed the growing disparity to the federal government’s tobacco excise, which has increased sharply over the past decade.

Key claims

• An estimated 80 per cent of cigarettes and vapes consumed in Australia last year were illegal, according to ABS analysis reported by both ABC Australia and The Guardian.
• Nicotine consumption increased by almost 40 per cent between 2017 and 2025, a figure carried by both outlets.
• Household spending on legal tobacco products fell dramatically over the same period, dropping to levels similar to those seen in 2016, as reported by The Guardian and echoed by ABC Australia.
• The cost of legal cigarettes had tripled since 2016, while the price of illegal tobacco products remained relatively constant, a claim reported by The Guardian.
• The tax alone increased by more than 200 per cent in the past decade, with the excise now worth $1.52 per stick, according to ABC Australia.
• Under-the-counter cigarettes sell for around $25 a pack, as reported by ABC Australia, which noted they are being imported in huge quantities, mainly from Asia and the Middle East.
• The NSW health minister, Ryan Park, told The Guardian the data was "unsurprising" and pointed to a "growing disparity between the cost in legal and illicit tobacco, created by the federal government’s tobacco excise".

Perspectives

Federal policy criticism: The NSW health minister, Ryan Park, said the data pointed to a public health failure, with excise-free products becoming more attractive amid cost-of-living pressures. He argued that states and territories have had to dedicate further resources to licensing and enforcement.

Academic analysis: Deakin University criminologist James Martin, quoted by ABC Australia, described the findings as a "massive policy failure" requiring a "radical rethink", saying it was not possible to enforce a way out of a problem of this size.