Lead

Australia's net overseas migration fell to 301,000 people last year, the lowest level since mid-2022, according to new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, the number remains above pre-pandemic levels and above the federal government's own forecasts, reigniting a politically charged debate over immigration policy.

The figures show a continued decline from the post-pandemic peak of 556,000 in late 2023, with net overseas migration (NOM) tracking steadily downward over the past two years. The number is only slightly below the 306,000 recorded in the previous year, suggesting the decline has Plateaued.

Coverage comparison

Two major news outlets covered the release of the data, offering different emphases. The Guardian, in its Australia-focused reporting, framed the numbers as a continuation of a downward trend, while noting the figures remain above pre-pandemic levels. The report highlighted expert commentary on a possible "new normal" for migration.

ABC Australia took a more critical stance, focusing on the opposition's claims that migration remains unsustainable. The broadcaster emphasized that NOM has remained above the government's expectations and well above long-term projections.

Despite these differences, both sources agree on the core statistics and the context of a heated political debate over immigration.

Key claims

  • Net overseas migration added 301,000 people to Australia's population last year, the lowest increase since mid-2022, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
  • The figure remains above the pre-pandemic pace, as reported by both The Guardian and ABC.
  • Annual migration growth peaked at 556,000 in late 2023, after collapsing below zero during COVID-19 lockdowns.
  • The May budget had forecast NOM to drop to 295,000 in this financial year, per the Guardian's report.
  • Terry Rawnsley, a senior economist at KPMG, said Australia appears to have settled into a "new normal" of around 300,000 net migrants per year, about 25% above historical levels. The increase is driven by strong migration into Queensland and Western Australia, with a 75% and 250% rise respectively, while NSW and Victoria are back to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Shadow immigration minister Jonno Duniam said annual NOM of 301,000 was "still far too high," and noted NOM has remained above 300,000 for 14 consecutive quarters.
  • Immigration Minister Tony Burke described the government's approach to migration as "sensible" and "measured," saying it would continue to prioritize skilled workers.
  • The total population increased by 1.5% in 2025, adding 412,500 people, according to a claim carried by a single outlet.
  • International student numbers have declined slightly, and the number of temporary visa holders has fallen by 10% over the year, per the same source.

Perspectives

Government perspective

The government, led by Labor, emphasizes that migration is coming down. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said "the facts clearly show that net overseas migration is coming down under Labor." Immigration Minister Tony Burke defended the policy as "sensible" and "measured," while acknowledging labor shortages require skilled workers.

Opposition/Coalition perspective

The Coalition, represented by shadow immigration minister Jonno Duniam, argues that the numbers remain too high. Duniam said NOM above 300,000 for 14 straight quarters demonstrates the government has "lost control of the system" and ignored warnings about unsustainable migration settings.

Regional economic perspective

KPMG economist Terry Rawnsley offers a neutral view, suggesting the current level reflects a "new normal" driven by economic demand in Queensland and Western Australia. These states are tapping overseas workers to fill jobs created by strong economies, with migration into NSW and Victoria back to pre-pandemic levels.

Political context

The issue is politically sensitive, with One Nation leader Pauline Hanson making immigration a centerpiece of her recent National Press Club address, where she called multiculturalism a "failed policy." One Nation proposes capping visas at 130,000 per year. The debate highlights the tension between reducing migration numbers and addressing labor shortages.