Markets hold steady ahead of key events
Asian share markets were flat on Monday, August 24, 2026, as traders awaited details of threatened U.S. sanctions on Iran due later in the session, and braced for Nvidia's earnings later in the week. The Canadian dollar dipped as a trade war loomed with the United States, while gold prices continued their record-setting climb.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2%, while Japan's Nikkei was near flat, having fallen almost 4% the prior week. In Europe, futures for the EURO STOXX 50, DAX, and FTSE were all little changed, and on Wall Street, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were a fraction lower.
Oil and Iran sanctions
Oil prices slipped ahead of a news conference by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was due to outline sanctions on Iran, which has shown no sign of relinquishing its control over the vital Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped 1.0% to $93.43 a barrel, following gains of 6.6% last week, while U.S. crude eased 1.1% to $86.14 a barrel.
Investors were also focused on Bessent's earlier announcement of a plan to at least double bond buybacks, aimed at restraining a rise in yields that was tightening financial conditions. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield was back up at 5.2760%, not far from the recent 19-year peak of 5.3371%. Higher yields make debt more attractive compared to equities while lifting the discount applied to future earnings, and analysts highlight the stretched nature of some valuations.
Nvidia results in focus
The entire tech sector is holding its breath for Nvidia's results due Wednesday, August 26, with analysts expecting quarterly revenue to almost double to around $92 billion, and full-year earnings guidance seen in a range of $103 billion to $105 billion. Investors are aware how hard it will be for the chip maker to meet sky-high expectations.
Warsh and rate outlook
Market participants will also be hoping for clarity on the U.S. interest rate outlook when Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, though his well-known aversion to forward guidance could lead to disappointment. "There are several reasons to expect to be underwhelmed," said Bruce Katman, chief economist at JPMorgan. He noted that past chairs have not wanted to front-run Fed decisions at the event, and suggested Warsh may instead focus on aspects of his 'regime change' agenda, such as the balance sheet.
Markets imply around a 40% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates when it meets on September 16, and are fully priced for a move by December. The odds could change depending on U.S. inflation figures this week, with median forecasts for core inflation expected to hold at around 3.3% in July.
Meanwhile, the dollar was on the defensive elsewhere, having lost 0.8% last week against a basket of currencies at 96.832. The euro held at $1.1675 after rising 0.9% last week, while the dollar was flat at 159.00 yen. The dollar has been undermined as investors fret that growing U.S. debt and policy uncertainties will erode the currency's purchasing power, driving demand for scarcer assets such as gold, which is lifted another 0.4% to $4,263 an ounce, having climbed more than 14% for the month so far. If the gain holds, August would mark the biggest monthly rise on record.
Divergence: Carney tariff response
In currencies, the U.S. dollar added 0.9% against the Canadian dollar to 1.3784 after Prime Minister Mark Carney said his country would respond to U.S. tariff with levies of its own as trade talks had broken down. Canada is set to impose duties on U.S. steel and dairy appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, electronics, along with some products that the U.S. previously targeted, according to the report.