As Strait of Hormuz transit drops, Trump again says US has ‘control’

Shipping data shows continued slump in Strait of Hormuz transits

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a fraction of its pre-war volume, according to vessel-tracking data, even as President Donald Trump insists the United States holds "total control" over the vital waterway.

Data from the analytics firm Kpler, cited by multiple outlets, shows that only a handful of ships are crossing the strait daily. Reuters reported that just eight vessels transited on Tuesday, down from a ten-day average of about 12 ships, according to Kpler. Another set of figures cited by The Independent put Tuesday's crossings at six commodity vessels as of 2.58am GMT, a decrease from nine a day earlier and below the 10-day daily average of 11. The Daily Star reported that traffic on Wednesday was unchanged from the day before, with nine commodity vessel transits, while TASS, citing Reuters, reported that only three tankers and three bulk carriers passed through over a 24-hour period.

These figures stand in stark contrast to the period before the war began on February 28, when between 130 and 140 vessels transited the strait daily, according to Kpler data shared with The Independent.

While the exact daily counts vary slightly between reports—likely reflecting different measurement times and vessel categories—all point to the same conclusion: transits remain far below normal levels. Some vessels may also be sailing with their transponders turned off, meaning they are not included in the counts, as The Daily Star noted.

Trump's claim of control contradicts shipping reality

President Trump has made a series of statements asserting US dominance over the strait. On Tuesday, he declared the waterway "new US territory" in a Truth Social post accompanied by a map, according to The Independent. In the same post, he wrote: "The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect... The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated."

The following day, he wrote on Truth Social: "The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT!" He went on to claim that the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports "is being called, by everyone, 'A WALL OF STEEL,' and there is nothing Iran can do about it," adding, "Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East No Longer," and ending with "Praise be to Allah!" as reported by Al Jazeera.

The shipping data presents a different picture, however. In addition to the low transit numbers, a US Navy military helicopter struck a Panama-flagged cargo vessel on Tuesday, and six people were killed in a Houthi attack on an Egyptian-owned ship on Tuesday, in the first deaths from such an attack, Al Jazeera reported.

Iran's conditions for reopening

Iran has said it will not allow full traffic in the strait until the US naval blockade is lifted, sanctions are lifted, and its assets are unfrozen. Parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated this on Tuesday, saying the route is to remain closed until the US meets conditions agreed in an interim deal, as reported by The Independent.

Meanwhile, Iran has been pursuing talks with Oman over the strait's future management, though these talks do not include Washington, and wider peace negotiations between the US and Iran remain largely paused. Tehran has said it is close to finalising a deal with Oman over Hormuz, acknowledging delays, according to The Independent.

The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the conflict in June, but the agreement dissolved in mid-July, Al Jazeera reported.

The war between the US and Iran, launched on February 28, has led to continued attacks and heightened threats in the region. The conflict has also affected the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where traffic slowed further, with 27 commodity vessels on Wednesday, down from 32 on Tuesday, according to Kpler data cited by The Daily Star.

Diplomatic efforts and regional mediation

Efforts to broker a ceasefire continue, with Pakistan playing a role. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said Islamabad was working to "bring the two parties to the negotiating table," as reported by Al Jazeera. Pakistan's deputy prime minister and deputy foreign minister held talks with officials from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait on August 10, and Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is also visiting Tehran, according to Al Jazeera.

At the same time, President Trump has made conflicting statements about the status of negotiations. He said on Tuesday that no talks were taking place and that the strait was open, according to The Daily Star. However, TASS reported that Trump announced further details regarding talks between the US and Iran would be made public on August 4, saying the two sides were already in contact, although Tehran has not publicly acknowledged this. He had earlier stated the two sides would enter negotiations on August 3.

The Trump administration has signalled its desire for an off-ramp in the war, which is politically unpopular ahead of midterm elections in November, according to Al Jazeera.

Perspectives

United States

The US administration, through President Trump, maintains that the strait is open and operating and that the US holds "total control" over the waterway. Trump has also threatened Oman, saying in a Fox News interview: "If Oman gets in the way, we'll bomb the s**t out of them." He told reporters: "No, I don't think they behaved very well, but we'd handle them very easily, just like we do other things." The administration has signalled a desire for an off-ramp in the war.

Iran

Iran says the strait remains shut until the US meets conditions agreed in an interim deal: lifting the naval blockade, lifting sanctions, and releasing frozen assets. Tehran is pursuing a separate track with Oman on the strait's future management.

Oman

Oman has been mediating between the US and Iran, hosting talks on the strait's future. Trump's threats against Oman have generated unease in Muscat and could make it harder for Oman to act as a trusted diplomatic bridge, according to Neil Quilliam, an analyst at Chatham House, as reported by The Independent.

Analysts and Experts

Some analysts question the administration's assertions of control. Dennis Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on X that the determination to demonstrate the US is "winning" is creating a virtual reality, and that the US does not control the strait, as reported by Al Jazeera. Others have questioned US Energy Secretary Chris Wright's statement that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait is up to almost 9 million barrels per day; Brett Erickson, an analyst at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said there is "zero evidence that 9Mbpd is exiting the Strait of Hormuz per day."