As Iran fades, Turkey emerges as Israel's biggest strategic threat

Israel Braces for Turkey as Iran's Influence Fades

As the sun sets on Iran's regional hegemony, Israeli officials and analysts are turning their attention to Turkey as a possible successor to Tehran as the region's dominant power. The shift comes amid reports that US President Donald Trump met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the potential sale of advanced F-35 fighter jets—a move that has sparked a public campaign by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against the deal.

Netanyahu's efforts, as reported by the Jerusalem Post, include appearances on American television networks to lobby against the proposed sale. In a recent Channel 14 interview, Netanyahu framed the moment in historical terms, saying, "History teaches that when one regional power declines, another rises. Our task is to make sure Israel continues rising faster than anyone else."

Speaking to CNN, Netanyahu described Turkey as having "aggressive aspirations," adding that it "is not a force for peace and security" and that F-35 planes in Turkish hands would "destroy the power balance" in the region.

Turkey's Rising Ambitions

Turkey's emergence as a regional player is not new, but its ambitions appear to be growing as Iran's military capabilities and network of proxies have been "severely degraded," according to the Jerusalem Post's reporting. Ankara is already "entrenched in Syria," has been expanding a domestic defense industry capable of producing sophisticated drones and naval vessels, and is "seeking a foothold in Gaza."

Former Israeli national security adviser Giora Eiland observed this week that while Iran sought to surround Israel with a Shi'ite ring of fire, Turkey increasingly appears interested in building a Sunni one. The Jerusalem Post describes Turkey as "jockeying to replace Iran as the region's dominant power."

Greece and Cyprus have also expressed concerns about Turkey's assertive posture, and Armenian-American organizations have opposed Turkish policies, the newspaper reports.

The F-35 Debate

At the heart of the current tension is the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. The US Congress has passed a law barring Turkey from receiving the aircraft due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system, but President Trump's apparent willingness to reconsider the issue has alarmed Israeli officials.

Netanyahu's public campaign against the sale reflects a broader concern that American F-35s, coupled with Trump's embrace of Erdogan, could help Turkey fill the vacuum left by Iran's decline. The Jerusalem Post notes that the administration's policy is "still under consideration."

Differing Views on the Threat

Not all voices in Israel share the same level of alarm. In a recent podcast episode of the Jerusalem Post's "Deep Dive," host Jacob Laznik was joined by Or Horvitz, head of the American program at the JPPI, who pushed back against the panic, arguing that Turkey "is not Iran." Horvitz noted that Turkey craves a place in the Western world as much as regional dominance, and that ambition is exactly the leverage Washington and Jerusalem still hold.

Horvitz did not downplay the danger, pointing out that Turkish disapproval of Israel is above 96%, suggesting this is "no longer just a quarrel with Erdogan." He warned that if Iran continues to unravel, a rising Sunni power could inherit the role of Israel's chief rival.

Gaza and the 'Board of Peace'

On Gaza, Horvitz was blunt, calling Hamas's move to dissolve its governing committee "only a charade." He argued that the group may cede visible control but will never give up its weapons, because "the guns are its reason to exist." He also explained why Qatari and Turkish influence over any "Board of Peace" is Israel's quiet nightmare, and why finishing Hamas requires both military pressure and moderate voices most assume can't be found.

Israel-US Relations

Horvitz also offered a read on the growing daylight between Israel and Washington. He called the F-35 sale "bad, but not a disaster," suggesting it is not a fight worth waging in public. Instead, he insisted that the real red line is the enriched uranium still sitting in Iran.

Netanyahu's public campaign, however, indicates that his government views the F-35 issue as significant enough to warrant direct lobbying. The discrepancy between these approaches highlights the ongoing debate within Israeli policy circles over how to handle Turkey's rise and how best to manage relations with the United States.