As India rises in critical minerals race, can it dent China’s dominance?

Lead

India and the United States have signed a framework agreement to secure supplies of critical minerals and rare earths, a move that analysts say underscores growing global concern over China's dominance in the sector. The bilateral pact, finalized on May 26 during US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's visit to New Delhi, aims to deepen cooperation across the critical minerals supply chain, including mining, processing, recycling, and related investments, according to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the US embassy in India.

The agreement came just ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the US – where the group launched a separate critical minerals framework with up to US$20 billion in pooled resources. The initiatives have been widely interpreted as a response to China's near-monopoly on critical minerals, which are essential for electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, semiconductors, and defense technologies.

Coverage Comparison

Reporting on the developments in New Delhi has been extensive, with outlets offering complementary perspectives. Al Jazeera framed the US-India framework as a strategic push to "curb global reliance on Beijing for rare earth elements," emphasizing China's "coercive market practices" as the driving concern. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) provided multiple angles across its coverage, highlighting the Quad's financial commitment and the analytical view that China's position was built through decades of scale and industrial policy. Some SCMP reports also spotlighted India's potential as an alternative sourcing destination, while others quoted experts cautioning that India is unlikely to "dent Beijing's dominance any time soon."

One notable discrepancy: Al Jazeera mentioned a maritime surveillance collaboration and an energy security initiative announced by the Quad, along with a pilot port infrastructure project in Fiji. These details were absent from the SCMP reports reviewed, which focused exclusively on the critical minerals framework. It is unclear whether these additional measures were part of the same announcement or separate initiatives.

Key Claims

• The US-India critical minerals framework, signed on May 26, aims to protect supply chains from "coercive market practices" and reduce "vulnerability to single-source monopolies," according to a US embassy statement cited by the SCMP.
• The Quad countries intend to mobilize up to US$20 billion for their critical minerals initiative, using a mix of loans, guarantees, subsidies, and long-term purchase agreements. This figure was reported by both Al Jazeera and the SCMP.
• China controls an average of 70 to 90 percent of global processing capacity for lithium, cobalt, graphite, and manganese, according to the International Energy Agency, as cited in SCMP reporting. China is also the world's leading refiner for 19 of 20 strategically important energy minerals.
• India has 13.15 million tonnes of monazite, a phosphate mineral that contains rare earth oxides, according to a report in the SCMP. The processing costs for rare earths are a key factor, though the full details were not provided in the available extracts.
• The Quad also introduced a maritime surveillance collaboration to integrate regional information sharing, an energy security initiative, and a pilot port infrastructure project in Fiji, as reported by Al Jazeera. These claims were not corroborated in other sources reviewed.

Perspectives

On the strategic significance of the agreements: Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar described the bilateral pact as "something very timely and critical," while Rubio underscored the strategic importance of ensuring reliable long-term access to critical minerals, according to SCMP. The framework is seen as part of broader US efforts to diversify sourcing and reduce reliance on China, a policy that has been consistent under successive administrations.

On China's dominance and the challenge ahead: Experts like William Heidlage, senior director at BowerGroupAsia, argue that China's dominant position was built over decades through scale, processing capacity, and industrial policy. This view, cited in SCMP's analysis, suggests that overtaking China's lead is not a near-term prospect, even with significant investment.

On India's role as an alternative: India's rare earth reserves are substantial – the country holds 13.15 million tonnes of monazite – and the bilateral pact has "put the spotlight on New Delhi's potential as an alternative to China," as noted in SCMP reporting. However, analysts caution that India's lack of processing infrastructure and the time required to develop it mean it will not easily displace China's position. The US embassy statement itself frames the cooperation as a means to reduce "vulnerability to single-source monopolies," rather than replacing them outright.

The long-term success of these initiatives will likely depend on whether the Quad members can move beyond policy declarations and deliver measurable outcomes, as analysts quoted by SCMP noted. With China maintaining its processing dominance for the foreseeable future, the new frameworks represent a strategic bet on diversification – but one whose payoff remains uncertain.