Putin: Armenia's EU bid amounts to withdrawal from Eurasian Economic Union

Putin and Pashinyan clash over Armenia's EU ambitions

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan that Yerevan's bid to join the European Union could disrupt trade with Moscow, as the two leaders met on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's summit in Kyrgyzstan's capital on Tuesday.

According to the Kremlin, Putin told Pashinyan that Armenia's EU aspirations could create complications for its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), a Russia-led grouping of several post-Soviet states. Putin said that Armenia joining the EU would be tantamount to declaring a break from the EEU, whose members include Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

"Dear Nikol Vovaevich, we will have a discussion now. I always enjoy discussing any topic with you, including this one. But I will have to disagree with you on the main issue. You said that you hadn't announced your withdrawal. But, the adoption of a law initiating the procedure for joining another economic organization effectively amounts to an announcement of withdrawal from ours," Putin said, as reported by TASS.

"Membership in both of them is impossible, that's where the problem lies," he stressed.

Putin also said that Armenia's aspiration to join the EU is the natural and legitimate right of the country and its people, but that it creates complications for its EEU membership.

Pashinyan's response

Pashinyan, however, stressed that Yerevan has not violated any of its obligations towards Russia and that Armenia did not want to leave the EEU through its EU accession process. He said Armenia's EU accession law did not violate its obligations to Russia or the EEU and that it was only an alternative his government had given the people of Armenia.

Background: A deepening rift

Relations between Russia and Armenia have reached historic lows as Yerevan pivots toward the West, prompting sharp economic and political retaliation from Moscow. Armenia has been Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), host to a Russian military base, and dependent on Russian support.

Russia did not intervene militarily when Azerbaijan launched a major military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Political analyst Laurențiu Pleșca said Moscow not supporting Yerevan during the Karabakh war led to Armenia's pivot to the West.

Russia has started blocking imports of Armenian goods and is threatening to suspend duty-free supply of gas, oil products, and diamonds to Armenia. The EU has pledged economic support to offset pressure on Armenia from Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged an additional 18 million euros ($20m) as part of a broader 52 million euros ($60m) economic support package.

In April, Armenia's president signed into law a bill setting the legal foundation to move towards joining the EU. Pashinyan stated the bill did not represent an application but the start of a broader process of integration. In July, Pashinyan said Armenia would decide its future EU membership by holding a referendum "in the near future."

Armenia hosted its first official EU summit last month. It also hosted French President Emmanuel Macron for a state visit, provoking sharp criticism from the Kremlin after a video emerged of Macron singing while Pashinyan played the drums.

The EEU and its implications

The EEU is a group of former Soviet Union countries coordinating economic and trade policies, established in May 2014, with operations beginning in January 2015. According to a 2022 Chatham House report, the EEU is in effect a Russian-led effort to create a Eurasian counterpart to the EU. The report states Putin sees the EEU as part of his drive to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence lost by the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

In June, Pashinyan rejected a call from Moscow to hold an immediate referendum on leaving the EEU to join the EU. At the EEU summit on May 29, Putin and fellow bloc members Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan issued a joint statement urging Armenia to hold a referendum "as soon as possible" on leaving the EEU to join the EU. Putin also made a barely-veiled threat at the EEU summit, warning Armenia against pursuing its Western ambitions and referring to Russia's war in Ukraine, saying that the "Ukrainian scenario" had also begun with Kyiv's EU aspirations.

Pashinyan said the government would continue working within the EEU until a choice between the two blocs becomes unavoidable. He said a referendum before Armenia formally applies for EU candidate status would be "neither very sensible nor justified."

Pleșca said a pro-EU stance is clear and Moscow is compensating with economic blackmail. In Armenia's June parliamentary elections, Moscow was accused of seeking to tip the scales by exerting economic and diplomatic pressure on Pashinyan's government.

Pleșca also said no mechanism exists to expel a member, and Armenia hasn't triggered the six-month exit notice, so an EU bid doesn't automatically breach its obligations towards the EEU. He added that for Russia, Armenia's EU bid is also about losing a foothold in the South Caucasus.