Colorado River cuts loom over Arizona

Under the searing desert sun, Max Wilson watched water flow through a canal in north Phoenix. This unassuming strip of blue next to a busy road is the city's lifeline to the Colorado River. Soon, there will be less water in it.

Wilson, who is the water resources management advisor for the City of Phoenix, has to make sure cuts to this canal's supply don't cause taps to go dry for more than 1.7 million people who depend on his system. He is confident water will keep flowing out of kitchen sinks, showers and sprinklers across the nation's fifth-largest city.

"Arizonans have been solving water problems for our entire history, and we didn't forget how to do that overnight," Wilson said. "We're going to do it again now."

The cuts, which kick in on Jan. 1, are the result of a new federal plan for managing the Colorado River. After more than 26 years of drought and climate change sapped the river's supply, the nation's two largest reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead — are at record lows. The seven states that use the river's water spent years trying to agree on a plan to rein in demand. Those negotiations failed, and the federal government had to step in with its own.

The result is a strategy that includes mandatory cuts of 27% to Arizona's Colorado River supplies each year through 2028, with an option for steeper cuts after that.

State's reserves cushion initial blow

Arizona can absorb the initial 31% reduction in its Colorado River supply, largely because it has spent decades banking water underground, experts say. But that reserve is finite, and state and local water officials are already looking for additional supplies — from water recycling and new groundwater infrastructure to desalination — as they prepare for potentially deeper cuts to the river in the years ahead.

Following the Bureau of Reclamation's Record of Decision on Colorado River negotiations, Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke toured the state to discuss its implications for cities, industries and the state as a whole. Buschatzke told the Arizona Corporation Commission on Aug. 26 that the state is looking beyond the operating guidelines approved by the federal government for 2027 and 2028.

"The scientists are telling us that the flow of the river is going to decline over time," Buschatzke said. "What we have to do is not a short-term issue. The drought is not going away."

Phoenix's water portfolio

The Central Arizona Project canal winds through Phoenix. The 336-mile canal system pumps water from the Colorado River to the Phoenix and Tucson areas. Colorado River water makes up 40% of the supplies Phoenix feeds to its customers, while the Salt and Verde Rivers supply about 58% of the water sent to its customers.

The City of Phoenix spent about $300 million building a "drought pipeline," which was completed in early 2023. Phoenix has also brought down peak summertime water use since the 1980s by about 40%. A water recycling project could cost more than $359 million to build.

Communities hit hardest

Some communities are more exposed to the cuts than others. Gilbert gets about 41% of its water from the Colorado River and will lose 20% of that allocation under the upcoming cuts. Water bills in Gilbert have doubled, roughly, since 2024. The town of Cave Creek gets about 95% of its water from the Colorado River.

The Ak-Chin Indian Community has deep legal protections on its water, but other tribes and smaller towns may not be as shielded.

Exploring alternatives

Beyond conservation, Arizona is looking at more ambitious projects. Buschatzke mentioned a legal framework for desalinated water from the San Diego County Water Authority. The Water Infrastructure Financing Authority approved development of two desalination plants in California or Mexico, with a potential cost of $5-10 billion.

Some state lawmakers are pushing for new infrastructure, too. Congressman Andy Biggs and Rep. Gail Griffin called for building the "Donald J. Trump Imperial Dam."

The politics of water have become increasingly charged, especially as the finalization of the next decade's Colorado River operating guidelines coincides with midterm elections. Gov. Katie Hobbs has steered Arizona through several years of negotiations with the Upper Basin states and has tried to twist the federal government's arm in the process.

Sarah Porter, director of ASU's Kyl Center for Water Policy, and Britton Baxter, director of ACC's utilities division, have both weighed in on water storage and sustainable water surcharges, respectively.

"We're going to have to pay more for water," said one official. "That's the reality."