Shares of Apollo Tyres climbed on Monday after UBS upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' and raised its target price to Rs 590 from Rs 580, implying a potential upside of around 34% from Friday's closing price. The stock jumped as much as 6.4% to a day's high of Rs 468 on the BSE, as per The Economic Times.

UBS's rationale

UBS noted that Apollo Tyres continues to trade at a valuation discount to its peers and has underperformed the broader tyre sector over the past four years. The brokerage sees an improving outlook, with management taking concrete steps to strengthen the India business, including investments in brand building such as the sponsorship of the Indian cricket team's jersey. Prospects for the Europe business are also becoming more constructive, UBS said.

The brokerage believes investors remain overly focused on near-term commodity cost pressures and recent execution challenges, while overlooking the company's significant earnings recovery potential once commodity pressures ease. UBS expects the market is underappreciating Apollo Tyres' medium-term earnings recovery potential.

Near-term pressures, longer-term recovery

While UBS acknowledged that the June quarter saw a 22% quarter-on-quarter rise in natural rubber prices, it cautioned that the September quarter could face further pressure. However, the brokerage expects earnings to improve meaningfully thereafter, projecting project EBITDA to rise 21% year-on-year in FY28.

Q1 results

Apollo Tyres reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 348.9 crore for the June quarter, compared with Rs 12.9 crore in the same period last year. Revenue from operations increased 12.8% year-on-year to Rs 7,397.8 crore. EBITDA was broadly unchanged at Rs 868 crore, with operating margin falling to 11.7% from 13.2% a year earlier.

The bottom line was aided by an exceptional gain of Rs 24 crore during the quarter, against an exceptional loss of Rs 370 crore in the year-ago period.