A Record of Stability

Giorgia Meloni is set to lead Italy's longest-lasting government since World War II, a milestone that underscores a rare period of political stability in a country long known for its short-lived administrations. On Friday, the prime minister, who took office in October 2022, will have been in charge of the same coalition for 1,413 days, one more than the record of 1,412 consecutive days set by Silvio Berlusconi in 2005.

Meloni, who has tempered her populist instincts with pragmatism since coming to power, plans to mark the occasion with a rally on September 4, framing the durability of her coalition as one of its crowning achievements, according to Reuters. The event comes as Italy, which has cycled through 68 governments in 80 years, has proved steadier during a period of global conflict than France, which has had five prime ministers since the autumn of 2022, and Britain, which has had four.

"It is certainly a point of pride," Marco Osnato, a lawmaker with Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, told AFP.

While Berlusconi's single-term record is about to be eclipsed, he remains the longest-serving Italian prime minister overall, with a tenure of about nine years over four terms between 1994 and 2011.

A Record Amid Challenges

The record is likely to bolster Meloni's image as Italy gears up for a national vote in 2027, analysts say, but it belies considerable challenges ahead. Opinion polls suggest that the 2027 parliamentary elections could usher in a more fragmented and potentially less stable political landscape.

"There is a genuine risk that we could return to the worst kind of a splintered parliament next time around," said Roberto D'Alimonte, a professor of Italian politics at Rome's Luiss university.

The political landscape has shifted with the emergence of a new far-right party led by former general Roberto Vannacci, whose blunt language on immigration, security, and cultural change has tapped into public anxieties. Support for Vannacci has surged to 8%, according to a poll published by BiDiMedia on August 26, which put the coalition partners at just 38.5%. Vannacci's rise risks turning a previously disciplined conservative alliance into a more fractious bloc.

The broad centre-left camp, deeply divided over foreign policy and prone to infighting, is hovering close to the vital 42% threshold in that poll.

This year also brought setbacks for Meloni. In April, S. President Donald Trump accused her of lacking courage and letting the United States down in its war with Iran, a diplomatic blow that followed the collapse of their once-close ties. Weeks later, Italians rejected her flagship judicial reform in a referendum, a stinging domestic defeat that punctured the aura of invincibility surrounding the coalition.

Lorenzo Pregliasco of the YouTrend polling institute said the referendum defeat showed voters there "may be an alternative majority" to the coalition in power. The reform, which aimed to strengthen the powers of the prime minister and increase regional autonomy, was one of three flagship coalition pledges that the government has so far failed to deliver.

Economic Record: Progress and Gaps

Allies and critics offer sharply different assessments of the government's economic record. Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli of Brothers of Italy said the government had kept deficits and debt under control while adding 1.2 million workers to the jobs market, pushing unemployment to under 6%.

"The record figures on employment and unemployment are indisputable," he told Reuters.

Analysts broadly agree that Meloni's strongest achievement has been restoring confidence in Italy's shaky public finances. Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Treasury and now head of LC Macro Advisors, said the cabinet had convinced investors it was committed to budget discipline and had curtailed costly policies of past administrations, notably the "Superbonus" home renovation scheme.

"In terms of fiscal responsibility, I think the government has done a decent job," Codogno said. But he added: "In terms of promoting growth and reforming the economy, not much has been done."

Little effort was made to shake up an inefficient public administration, the health service, and the education system, while institutional reforms, including handing more powers to the prime minister, have floundered. Pregliasco said part of the reason Meloni has stayed in power for four years is that "she did not try to change much or upset voters."

The government has also focused on law and order, boosting police powers and cracking down on irregular immigration, cutting the number of new arrivals to 66,316 last year from 157,651 in 2023. Francesco Filini, head of Brothers of Italy's policy programme, told Reuters: "There has been the paradigm shift imposed by Giorgia Meloni in the management of illegal immigration."

Critics remain unconvinced. Chiara Braga, leader of the centre-left opposition Democratic Party's parliamentary group, said: "This stability was not capitalised upon. It did not lead to any significant improvement in people's living standards or business competitiveness."

Tito Boeri, an economist at Milan's Bocconi University, said the government "has primarily sought to survive" by "doing as little as possible."

Supporters counter that the administration has cut taxes, increased tax revenues, brought fiscal discipline to the highly indebted nation, and won Italy a more prominent role on the global stage at a fraught geopolitical time. Osnato said, "When it comes to foreign policy, Italy has never been so central, particularly in Europe."

Looking Ahead

The government has embarked on a last-gasp legislative push to redraw the electoral law, introducing a system that would give a majority bonus to any bloc winning more than 42% of the vote. Critics say the change is designed to strengthen the conservative bloc's chances of staying in power. Meloni says it is aimed at providing renewed stability whoever wins.

Codogno offered a cautionary note: "The markets have liked stability and got used to it, but this is Italy, it won't last for ever."