A Historic Election in the East

BERLIN — An election in eastern Germany on Sunday could produce the country's first far-right state governor in its post-World War II history, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his national government contend with what he calls a "widespread moroseness" among voters.

Several polls show a large lead for the anti-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of the election to the state legislature in Saxony-Anhalt, a region west of Berlin that is among the country's less prosperous. Taking control of a state government would be the biggest prize in the party's 13-year history — a political shock to Germany and at least a symbolic blow to Merz.

"If AfD wins the election and forms the government, that would be kind of breaking a taboo in Germany," said Wolfgang Merkel, a political science professor with the WBZ Berlin Social Science Center. Modern Germany has so far been "an exception" in Europe in having no radical right-wing party governing at the national, state, or big-city level, he added.

Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has led Saxony-Anhalt since 2002. The state is home to 2.1 million of Germany's 83.5 million people.

The AfD's rise comes amid voter discontent with the economy and migration, issues that have propelled the party beyond its traditional anti-immigration platform. In last year's national election, the AfD achieved the best postwar showing by a far-right party, with 20.8% of the vote, and became Germany's biggest opposition party.

A 'Historic Opportunity' for the AfD

The AfD's candidate for governor, Ulrich Siegmund, told The Associated Press at a campaign event in the small town of Moeser: "This is a historic opportunity that we have here in Saxony-Anhalt." He said, "No one here needs to be afraid, quite the contrary. Every honest person in Saxony-Anhalt will benefit from an AfD-led government."

Siegmund lists "the deportation of people who are illegal, a deportation offensive and above all the removal of incentives for people to come here and exploit our social system" among his top priorities. He has also said he wants to initiate a long process to withdraw Saxony-Anhalt from the regional public broadcaster, citing concerns about "disinformation."

In the state, the AfD wants to allow home schooling, which is not currently permitted in Germany, and pledges to ban schools from officially raising the rainbow flag while ensuring they fly the national flag. The party also opposes taxpayers' money being "given away" to Ukraine and says it would push to lift sanctions against Russia, though foreign policy is not a matter state governments can decide.

The AfD's regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt is one of several classified by Germany's domestic intelligence agency as a proven right-wing extremist group. The party's first and so far only head of a county administration was elected in 2023 in the neighboring state of Thuringia.

The Incumbent's Defense

Siegmund's main opponent is incumbent governor Sven Schulze of the CDU, who took office at the end of January after his predecessor Reiner Haseloff retired following nearly 15 years in charge. At 47, Schulze is the youngest of Germany's 16 state premiers.

Schulze has sought to tie the AfD to Germany's past eras of oppression, accusing the party of wanting to return to the days of the former East German communist dictatorship. He told DW that when the AfD sings the GDR anthem at its party events, it shows exactly what it wants.

"It's far from decided," Schulze has repeated on the campaign trail, even as polls put the AfD at over 40% and his CDU at around 23%. He is hoping the AfD will stay below 50% and thus be unable to secure a majority in the state parliament — and, with no other party willing to join it in a coalition, unable to form a government.

Schulze told the AP that the AfD "wants the past back" and that the state would face "isolation" with the party in power. He said the AfD effectively "doesn't want to have anyone here who was born abroad and lives and works here," and that "AfD does one thing — it describes problems. But it never has a solution for a problem."

He said he will not work with the AfD and that his own CDU is "100%" behind him. Schulze also pointed to the economic progress Saxony-Anhalt has made since German reunification in 1990, including lower unemployment.

Stakes and Outlook

Germany's 16 states hold extensive powers, overseeing areas like security and education, which makes control of a state government significant. The AfD, seeking an absolute majority, aims to overcome the so-called "firewall" of mainstream parties' refusal to cooperate with it.

Wolfgang Merkel of the WBZ Berlin Social Science Center said that if the AfD does not win an absolute majority, he does not see it governing, for lack of any potential coalition partner. He added that Merz's government needs to prove its ability to reform Germany and so far lacks "visible successes."

Merz has sought to spread optimism after his Cabinet met last week to underline its determination to push through reforms. The outcome of Sunday's election will be closely watched as an indicator of the AfD's momentum and the strength of established parties in eastern Germany.