An extra 229,000 deaths: Is that the cost of US-UK drugs deal?

Lead

A UK-US pharmaceutical trade deal signed in December could lead to 229,000 excess deaths in England by 2036, according to analysis published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ). The deal commits the UK to increase NHS spending on new US medicines, which researchers say will divert billions of pounds from other health services, adversely affecting public health.

Coverage comparison

The Guardian — World reported that the NHS will have to divert £45bn from essential services to pay for new medicines under the trade deal, leading to more than 200,000 avoidable deaths. Al Jazeera reported that the deal could cause 229,000 excess deaths, framing the issue as a diversion of NHS funds to pay for new medicines. Both outlets highlighted the BMJ research as the basis for the figures, though The Guardian — World's coverage was more critical, using language such as "devastating impact" and "avoidable deaths," while Al Jazeera maintained a more neutral tone.

Key claims

• The deal, signed in December, sees the US agree not to impose tariffs on UK pharmaceutical and medical technology exports for three years. In return, the UK government committed to increasing NHS spending on new US medicines from 0.3% of GDP in 2026 to at least 0.6% by 2036.
• The analysis, published in the BMJ and conducted by researchers from the University of York, the University of Liverpool, and Christchurch hospital in New Zealand, suggests the deal will cause 229,000 excess deaths by 2036 due to reduced NHS spending on other services. If the indirect effect on adult social care is included, the figure rises to 291,000.
• The Guardian — World reported that the NHS will have to divert £45bn from essential services by 2036 to pay for the new medicines, unless extra funding is provided. Al Jazeera similarly reported the diversion of billions of pounds.
• The estimated death toll is larger than the 137,000 deaths that occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic between March 2020 and June 2022, according to The Guardian — World.
• Most preventable deaths would be among people with heart, respiratory, and gastrointestinal disease or cancer.
• Ministers have defended the deal as a way to help UK drug exports avoid US tariffs and give patients access to life-changing medicines. Science Minister Patrick Vallance said in April that the deal gives patients access to "life-changing new medicines that they previously would have been denied."
• Critics, including MPs and campaign groups, accuse the government of caving in to pressure from Donald Trump. Researchers say the agreement "benefits pharmaceutical companies and comes at a cost of NHS patients," as Samuel Cross, a professor at the University of Liverpool and coauthor of the report, told Al Jazeera.
• The Guardian — World noted that the government says the deal will cost only an extra £1bn between 2025-26 and 2028-29, but the analysis suggests the annual cost to the NHS will surge to £8.8bn by 2036, with the total bill reaching £44.7bn by the end of that year.