Lead

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Monday that migration levels were reducing, responding to an opinion poll showing the right-wing populist One Nation party ahead of the governing Labor party.

Support for One Nation was 31 per cent, ahead of Labor on 30 per cent, according to a Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper on Monday. The poll of 1,240 people is the second major survey to show anti-migration One Nation in a leading position, echoing a Redbridge Group/Accent Research survey in the Australian Financial Review last week that showed Pauline Hanson's party climbed above Labor in a nationwide opinion poll for the first time.

Coverage Comparison

The two outlets that covered the story took different angles. ABC Australia focused on the federal budget's failure to resonate with younger voters, noting that One Nation is now out-polling Labor among millennials at 30 per cent compared to 28 per cent, while just 6 per cent of gen Z self-reported having noticed "a great deal" about the budget. The South China Morning Post highlighted the broader political implications, reporting that One Nation's primary vote advanced 4 percentage points to 31 per cent from a previous poll, while the centre-left government slipped 3 points to 28 per cent. The traditional centre-right Liberal-National coalition has hammered the centre-left government over the budget's broken election promises, yet its own primary vote slipped to 20 per cent from 22 per cent.

Key Claims

  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said migration levels were reducing, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
  • One Nation's support reached 31 per cent, ahead of Labor on 30 per cent, based on the same outlet's reporting.
  • Albanese's net approval rating has sunk to its lowest level since the 2022 election at minus 24, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
  • According to ABC Australia, Labor's federal budget is falling flat with its target demographic, with millennials expressing more support for One Nation than for Labor or the Greens.
  • Redbridge director Tony Barry said the budget has "turbocharged" anti-establishment sentiment and "pumped up One Nation's tyres," as reported by ABC Australia.
  • The government has repeatedly stated that the combined impact of negative gearing and capital gains tax discount changes will enable 75,000 first home buyers to enter the market, according to ABC Australia.
  • The South China Morning Post reported that One Nation's anti-immigration and economic nationalist message has been pitched at rural and regional Australia, and that the party claimed its first seat in the lower house in a recent by-election for the seat of Farrer.

Perspectives

  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: Responded to the polls by stating that migration levels are reducing, framing the issue as a matter of ongoing policy and not directly addressing the surge in One Nation support.
  • One Nation Party: The party's rise was attributed to its anti-immigration and economic nationalist message, targeted at rural and regional Australia, resonating with voters frustrated by cost-of-living pressures and the traditional parties.
  • Redbridge Director Tony Barry: A former Liberal Party strategist, Barry argued that Labor's budget has worsened anti-establishment sentiment, saying "It's as if Labor designed a budget to turbocharge more anti-establishment sentiment and pump up One Nation's tyres."