After Ending Power Shortages Kazakhstan Can Become Electricity Exporter

Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027, with the Energy Ministry projecting a surplus of about 1.3 billion kilowatt-hours by the end of that year. The announcement comes days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, underscoring the challenges of aging infrastructure and a tightly interconnected grid.

The projected surplus, while a milestone, is modest next to consumption: it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan used in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. Both The Astana Times and The Times of Central Asia reported the ministry’s target and the surplus figure, citing the 2027 commissioning of 845 megawatts of new generation capacity as the cornerstone of the strategy.

A dual strategy: gas and renewables

According to The Astana Times, the 2027 expansion follows a larger planned capacity increase in 2026, when Kazakhstan expects to commission around 2.6 gigawatts of new generation. That includes four gas-fired power plants, expansions of two existing power stations, and ten new renewable energy facilities.

In 2027, conventional projects include five gas turbine units at the Zhambyl State District Power Plant (210 MW combined), a combined-cycle gas plant at MAEK (160 MW), the first stage of the Baskuat-Energoprom project (34.7 MW via five gas piston units), and a combined-cycle plant developed by Kazakhmys Energy (70 MW). Renewable projects total 570 MW: a 100-MW solar plant in Almaty Region, three solar projects in Kyzylorda Region (70 MW), and wind projects in Aktobe (two 100-MW), Kyzylorda (50 MW), Turkistan (50 MW), and Abai Region (100 MW across two sites).

The Astana Times framed this mix as a deliberate shift from merely covering demand to building a reserve. One report states that “the objective is no longer limited to covering immediate electricity consumption but also includes creating a reserve,” a sentiment that highlights the government’s focus on flexibility. The Times of Central Asia adds that the projected surplus remains small relative to annual consumption, cautioning that it would not offer much room for error.

A late-year reminder: August outage

Both outlets placed the 2027 plans in the context of a recent disruption. On August 14, an outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, with power cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city (population about 2.4 million).

The cause remains under investigation. KEGOC, Kazakhstan’s national grid operator, said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s NorthEast-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry acknowledged the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating; its chair has not been publicly identified.

The outage highlighted the risk inherent in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems, allowing electricity to move across borders—but also allowing a sudden loss of generation to affect several countries in quick succession.

Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years, a trend that the new capacity aims to reverse. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh, importing 4.64 billion kWh from Russia and exporting 2.16 billion kWh back. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025, an early sign of the narrowing deficit.

Beyond 2027: modernizing an aging fleet

Looking further, Kazakhstan has announced longer-term goals to upgrade its thermal generation. The Times of Central Asia reports a plan to add or modernize 7.8 GW of coal-fired capacity by 2030, with investment of more than $15.5 billion, and a push to expand renewable sources as well. In 2025, thermal plants provided 74.4% of generation, while wind, solar, and biogas provided just 6.1%. The renewable base is expected to roughly double by 2029.

The data also show regional imbalances. In 2025, consumption rose 8% in the Southern Zone and 13.2% in the Western Zone. During a system-wide peak on December 27, the south consumed about 4.4 GW but generated only 2.25 GW, with 1.94 GW supplied through the NorthSouth corridor—a stretch that KEGOC is expanding by another 440 MW, due for completion in 2027.

One of the most pressing concerns is infrastructure age. According to Ranking.kz data cited by The Times of Central Asia, physical wear in Kazakhstan’s electricity supply system was estimated at around 76% in 2025. A national modernization program aims to reduce that to 45% by 2029.

The success of these plans, however, is not guaranteed. The Astana Times notes that actual electricity output from new capacity will depend on operating performance, fuel supply, grid infrastructure, and, for wind and solar, weather conditions. The timing of the Q1 2027 target also coincides with the completion of several projects, but any delays could strain the system.

For now, the Energy Ministry’s projections suggest Kazakhstan is on track to break a multi-year streak of net imports, but caution remains. The surplus of 1.3 billion kWh is a reserve, not a surplus economy, and the grid’s fragility was underscored by the months-old outage. Whether Kazakhstan can meet the 2027 deadline and maintain that surplus will depend on execution and weather, and on the broader health of regional systems.