Two Decades of the Green Revolution in Africa: A Record of Unmet Promises
As the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) marks its 20th anniversary, two new reports are drawing attention to what they describe as the model's failure to deliver on its core promises. The reports, by the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa (AFSA) and Tufts University researcher Timothy A. Wise, document the outcomes of two decades of interventions associated with AGRA, an initiative established in 2006 by the Gates and Rockefeller Foundations.
According to the findings, the number of undernourished people across AGRA focus countries has increased by 58 per cent since 2006, despite AGRA's stated objective of cutting hunger by half. This represents a significant deterioration from an earlier 2020 assessment, which had found a 31 per cent increase in undernourishment across the same countries.
Wise's latest review, titled "Requiem for Africa's Green Revolution," published on August 17, finds even slower productivity growth and worsening hunger under AGRA compared to before 2006. His 2020 assessment of AGRA up to 2018 had found progress on its own declared goals "quite modest and uneven."
The Model's Shortcomings
The reports question the effectiveness of the Green Revolution model's emphasis on increased use of commercial fertilisers, improved seeds, and other external agricultural inputs. They found that staple crop yield growth has slowed since AGRA's establishment compared with the 12 years preceding its launch, even though fertiliser use across the region has more than doubled.
Rather than achieving the promised "sustainable intensification" of agriculture through higher productivity on existing farmland, the reports said much of the increase in food production resulted from the expansion of cultivated land. Cropland expanded by 46 per cent since 2006, raising concerns over deforestation, land degradation, and the long-term sustainability of the agricultural model.
High-yielding seeds and related agrochemicals were not widely adopted by most smallholders except when heavily subsidised. But subsidies encouraged planting favoured crops on new farmland, with modest yield growth often failing to cover the costs of more expensive inputs, leaving farmers in debt. Meanwhile, cultivation and yields of millet, a nutritious climate-resilient staple, have declined over the last two decades.
AGRA's Evolution and Acknowledgment
AGRA, which has been pursued over the last twenty years in 13 focus countries, abandoned its original ambitious goals in 2022, adopting AGRA 3.0, which focuses on food systems and policy reforms. It also "rebranded" by changing its name to AGRA, removing its explicit association with the much-criticised Green Revolution.
AGRA's president, Agnes Kalibata, acknowledged in 2025 as she stepped down: "Part of why [AGRA] rebranded was that the Green Revolution ship has sailed. We can't continue pursuing what's not working for others."
The reports note that AGRA has never reported actual progress against its original goals of doubling productivity and incomes while halving hunger for 30 million farming households. AGRA claimed to directly reach 11 million farmers and indirectly reach 26 million farmers, significantly outstripping its initial targets. Most donors have cut support for AGRA.
Broader Context and Contrasting Example
The African Union launched the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP) in 2006, calling for 10% of government budgets to be spent on agriculture. By 2025, no country met CAADP's targets according to its biennial progress reports.
The researchers pointed to Senegal as a contrasting example. The country, which was not an AGRA focus country, achieved the target that AGRA had set for its own focus countries by cutting hunger by half during the period under review.
Calls for a Different Path
The reports advocate greater attention to farmer-led and agroecological approaches. Mutinta Nketani, National Coordinator of the Zambia Alliance for Agroecology and Biodiversity, said: "After billions poured into AGRA aligned policies, farmers have only grown hungrier and more in debt."
Million Belay, General Coordinator of AFSA, said: "The agroecological alternative isn't theoretical. Farmers are already building the agroecological alternative: restoring soils, protecting their seeds, diversifying their farms and reducing dependence on expensive external inputs."
AFSA's report, titled "The Green Revolution Has Failed Africa: Twenty Years of Evidence and What Works Instead," is scheduled for release on August 24. A virtual press conference is scheduled for Monday, August 24, 2026, at 9 a.m. EST, moderated by Raj Patel, with speakers including Belay, Mariama Sonko, Nketani, and Wise.