'A million things could go wrong' - why seizing Iran's uranium would be so risky for the US

Lead

US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a military operation to seize Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium — a move that military experts and former defence officials say would be extraordinarily complex and dangerous, according to multiple reports.

Iran is believed to hold approximately 440 kilograms (970 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60%, a level that significantly shortens the time needed to reach the 90% threshold required for a nuclear weapon, as reported by both Al Jazeera and the BBC. Most of that material is thought to be stored at the Isfahan facility, which was damaged in US-Israeli strikes last year.

Coverage comparison

Reports from Al Jazeera and the BBC — two of the major outlets covering the story — agree on the core elements: the US is considering sending special forces to Iran to retrieve the uranium, and the operation would face severe challenges. Al Jazeera's account emphasised the "complicated and risky" nature of such a mission, while the BBC described it as "extremely challenging and fraught with danger."

Both outlets note that preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons has been a central US objective in ongoing negotiations, and both report that the uranium stockpile is believed to be stored primarily at Isfahan, with additional material possibly at Natanz.

While the two reports share these fundamentals, they differ slightly in focus: Al Jazeera explored the chemical and logistical hurdles of handling the material, whereas the BBC interviewed former US defence officials who detailed the scale of a possible ground deployment.

Key claims

• The US is considering an operation to seize Iran's enriched uranium: Both Al Jazeera and the BBC report this, citing unnamed sources and a Wall Street Journal report, though the White House has said no final decision has been made.

• Iran holds about 440kg of uranium enriched to 60%: This figure appears in both reports, attributed to international inspectors and experts. The enrichment level is far beyond the 3.67% allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal, from which the US withdrew in 2018.

• Most of the highly enriched uranium is believed to be stored at Isfahan: Both outlets report this, with the BBC noting the facility was damaged in US-Israeli strikes last year.

• The operation would be extremely challenging and dangerous: Multiple experts quoted in both reports highlight the risk, including former deputy assistant defence secretary Mick Mulroy, who told the BBC that removing the stockpile would be one of "the most complicated special operations in history."

• US ground troops would be needed to secure and retrieve the material: Both reports agree on this, though the BBC adds that such a mission could take days or even weeks.

• The IAEA is considering a similar operation, modelled on 'Project Sapphire': This claim appears in a single report (Al Jazeera) and has not been independently confirmed. Project Sapphire was a 1994 operation in which the US removed nearly 600kg of enriched uranium from Kazakhstan.

• The uranium is stored in the form of hexafluoride gas, which reacts with water to produce toxic chemicals: This detail, reported by Al Jazeera, underscores the chemical dangers of handling the material. It is not included in the BBC's account.

• The US Army has three nuclear disablement teams trained for such tasks: Mentioned only by Al Jazeera, this is presented as background information on possible US capabilities, but the operational details are not confirmed.

Perspectives

The decision to consider seizing Iran's uranium reflects Washington's stated goal of ensuring Iran never develops nuclear weapons — a position outlined by both outlets. Iran maintains its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only, though its enrichment level far exceeds that need.

Experts quoted by the BBC point out that even if the operation succeeded, the material would be extremely difficult to handle and transport. "A million things could go wrong," is how one former official described the scenario, according to the BBC.

The operation would also be a dramatic escalation of the US military campaign against Iran, which has included bombings of nuclear facilities and an ongoing conflict that began in February. The White House has not confirmed that any such operation is imminent, and Trump himself appeared to downplay the threat, saying the uranium is "so deeply buried it's gonna be very hard for anybody."

Any attempt to seize the material would be undertaken without the consent of the Iranian government, raising legal and diplomatic questions. The IAEA's possible interest in a similar operation suggests that international actors may also be considering ways to neutralise the stockpile, though such reports remain unconfirmed.

As of now, the option remains under discussion, with no final decision announced by the White House. The risks — both tactical and political — are considerable, and the outcome of any such mission would be uncertain.