3 tropical depressions monitored inside, outside PAR; enhanced 'habagat' to drench Luzon

Multiple Storms Tracked as Habagat Intensifies

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported Wednesday that it was tracking three tropical depressions simultaneously, with one inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and two others outside, as the southwest monsoon or "habagat" continues to bring rains to Luzon.

Tropical Depression Neneng, the system inside the PAR, was located 675 kilometers east of Itbayat, Batanes, as of 4 a.m. Wednesday, with maximum sustained winds of 55 kilometers per hour and gustiness up to 70 kph, according to PAGASA weather specialist Chenel Dominguez. The storm was forecast to move generally west-northwestward and may make landfall over the eastern coast of Taiwan between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. Its center was expected to remain over the Philippine Sea, ruling out landfall in the Philippines, but Neneng was enhancing the southwest monsoon, which would bring heavy to intense rains over Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro in the next 24 hours. Occasional moderate to heavy rains were also projected for Metro Manila and parts of Luzon, with scattered rain over the rest of Luzon, Antique, and Aklan.

By Thursday, Neneng had weakened further, with its location moving north. According to a later PAGASA update, as of 4 a.m. Thursday, Neneng was 390 kilometers north of Itbayat, with winds down to 45 kph and gustiness to 55 kph. The agency expected the system to exit the PAR within 12 hours and weaken into a low-pressure area after possibly passing near or making landfall in Taiwan, according to reports from a Manila bulletin.

Two other tropical cyclones were being watched outside the PAR. One, formerly designated LPA 08g, was located 670 kilometers west of Calayan, Cagayan, moving westward toward mainland China, and was not expected to directly affect the Philippines. A second tropical depression was located 3,090 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao, moving slowly westward. PAGASA weather specialist Chenel D. said there was considerable uncertainty about that system, but it could enhance the herbsagat again next week, possibly bringing rain to a large part of the country.

Rappler, quoting PAGASA's forecast, reported that Neneng's maximum sustained winds decreased from 55 to 45 kph, and gustiness from 70 to 55 kph. By 4 p.m., it was located 375 kilometers northeast of Itbayat, moving west-northwest toward Taiwan at 35 kph. It was projected to pass close to or make landfall in Taiwan by Thursday evening or early Friday, possibly being downgraded to a remnant low by Friday morning. The enhanced monsoon brought heavy to intense rains (100-200 mm) to Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday, with moderate to heavy rains (50-100 mm) in Metro Manila and other areas, and strong to gale-force gusts in many parts of the country. Coastal waters in the seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Batanes were expected to be rough with waves up to 3.5 meters.

Brief Respite, but New Surge Possible

Despite the rains, PAGASA expected a temporary break as Neneng weakened, according to another forecast. Weather specialist Leanne Loreto said the weakening would ease the enhancement of the current monsoon and allow the weather to generally improve by Thursday, though some areas of Luzon might still see an off and on rain. She indicated that the Ilocos Region, Batanes, Zambales, and Bataan could experience occasional showers on Thursday, with scattered rains in the rest of the country, while the rest of the country would have generally fair weather except for the rain or thunderstorms that could develop in the afternoon or evening.

However, the break could be short-lived as PAGASA monitored another system, the storm with the international name "Saudel" in prospect. According to PAGASA, as of 3 a.m. Thursday, Saudel was located 2,960 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao, with winds of 75 kph and gustiness up to 90 kph. Loreto said Saudel could strengthen over the Pacific and may become a typhoon by the weekend, though it remained far from the Philippine landmass. If Saudel enters the PAR between Sunday and Monday, PAGASA would assign it the local name 'Ost' (as reported). Loreto noted that the arrival could trigger another surge of the monsoon, intensifying from Sunday onward, as reported by the Manila Bulletin.

PAGASA's projection, as cited by Rappler, estimated that up to four tropical cyclones might develop or enter the PAR within August, with the current unfinalized systems being among them.

Different Sources on the Third System

There were slight differences in the reports regarding the third tropical depression outside the PAR. The Manila Bulletin reported that this depression was located 3,090 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao and moving slowly westward, and that it could enhance the monsoon again next week. Rappler, on the other hand, referred to a new tropical depression that had developed over the West Philippine Sea on Tuesday, located 905 kilometers west of extreme Northern Luzon at 10 km/h, with low chances of crossing the PAR. The discrepancy likely reflects updates throughout the day. The Manila Bulletin also described a tropical depression formerly designated LPA 08b, located 670 kilometers west off the coast of Calayan, and moving west at 20 kph toward mainland China, not expected to directly affect the country.

Overall Outlook

With Neneng weakening and exiting the PAR, its capacity to enhance the monsoon will gradually ease, but the track of Saudel remains a factor for next week's development. The Philippine government, through PAGASA, is advising the public to monitor alerts and forecasts as multiple systems may still impact the region.