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The Athletic's Dane Brugler releases his 2027 NFL Draft quarterback rankings, with Arch Manning at No. 1 despite efficiency concerns and Dante Moore at No. 2. The class features a deep and jumbled middle tier, with several transfers and breakout candidates vying for early-round selection.
The 2027 NFL Draft quarterback class carries immense hype, but as Dane Brugler of The Athletic notes in his final Summer Scouting installment, living up to it will be tough. Brugler's rankings place Texas's Arch Manning at No. 1, followed by Oregon's Dante Moore at No. 2, with a crowded and jumbled group behind them.
Arch Manning: Talent vs. Efficiency
Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and grandson of Archie Manning, enters the season as the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. However, Brugler's analysis points to a disconnect between Manning's pedigree and his 2025 performance. Manning threw 26 touchdowns in 13 games but ranked 13th among 15 eligible SEC quarterbacks in completion percentage, completing 248-of-404 attempts (61.4 percent). He completed fewer than 48.3 percent of his passes in three games, and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian acknowledged Manning was "a little bit inefficient" at the start of a scrimmage. An area scout told Ryan Roberts of A to Z Sports that Manning looked "underwhelming" in the practice he attended.
Brugler's statistical model, FRED, which compares prospects to notable passers drafted since 2015, gives Manning a preseason score of 3.2. In that model, a score of 50 or above is the threshold for first-round QBs, and all 22 QBs who reached that mark became first-round picks. For context, Cam Ward had a FRED score of 6.8 entering the 2024 season and improved to 49.3 by season's end. The Ringer's Todd McShay isn't ruling out the possibility that Manning declares for the 2028 draft instead of 2027.
Dante Moore: The No. 2 Contender
Moore, who could have been the second overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft but returned to school, is ranked No. 2. Brugler praises Moore's passing touch, noting his quick setup and release, and his downfield accuracy. In 2025, Moore completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 3,565 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He completed 54.5 percent of attempts beyond 20-plus yards, including 15 touchdowns. Moore was the No. 3 quarterback in the 2023 recruiting class, behind Manning and Nico Iamaleava.
The Jumbled Middle Tier
Behind the top two, Brugler sees a deep and uncertain group. Ohio State's Julian Sayin led the nation in completion percentage (77%) and was second in QB rating (177.46) as a sophomore, but his physical tools are average, and he needs to show more answers against the pass rush. Sayin transferred to Ohio State after losses to Indiana and Miami at the end of the 2025 season.
Ole Miss's Trinidad Chambliss is a story of perseverance: he spent four years at Ferris State before stepping in for injured Austin Simmons in Week 2 of 2025. Chambliss earned Second-Team All-SEC honors and was named SEC Newcomer of the Year, leading Ole Miss to a 13-2 season with two College Football Playoff wins, including a 362-yard, two-touchdown performance against Georgia. However, he will be a 25-year-old rookie and stands under six feet tall.
Notre Dame's CJ Carr, grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, finished 2025 with a 24-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and helped the Fighting Irish finish the regular season with 10 straight wins. However, Notre Dame's losses to Miami and Texas A&M early in the season kept them out of the College Football Playoff. Carr ranked 84th in the FBS in pass attempts.
North Texas's Drew Mestemaker walked on and won the starting job as a redshirt freshman, posting 68.9 percent completions, 4,379 passing yards, and 39 total touchdowns in 2025. North Texas led the FBS in scoring offense at 45.1 points per game.
Others to Watch
Brugler's list also includes:
Jayden Maiava (USC), who led the nation in QBR.
Darian Mensah, who threw for 3,973 yards and 34 touchdowns in his lone season at Duke before reportedly receiving a NIL package close to $10 million to join Miami. Miami went to the national championship game with Carson Beck under center in 2025.
Sam Leavitt, who transferred from Arizona State to LSU after playing only seven games in 2025 due to a Lisfranc foot injury.
LaNorris Sellers, who threw 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions and completed less than 61% of his passes in 2025.
Nico Iamaleava, who transferred from Tennessee to UCLA after a five-touchdown performance in an upset of Penn State at the Rose Bowl, but also threw 13 touchdowns and averaged six yards per attempt.
Drake Lindsey (Minnesota) and Brendan Sorsby (Texas Tech), who won't have any 2026 film.
Brugler emphasizes that this list will fluctuate over the next eight months as the season unfolds.
Perspectives
Brugler's Rankings: Brugler places Manning at No. 1 despite statistical red flags, suggesting his talent and pedigree outweigh current inefficiency. The FRED model, however, indicates Manning is far from a sure thing.
Scout and Coach Concerns: Sarkisian's and an anonymous scout's comments highlight real on-field struggles that could impact Manning's draft stock if not corrected.
Draft Timing Uncertainty: McShay's suggestion that Manning could wait until 2028 adds a layer of uncertainty to the 2027 class, which could reshape the top of the draft.
How this outlet told it
New York Times — World
Framing: The headline "2027 NFL Draft preseason positional rankings: Quarterbacks" sets the context of a ranking and analysis piece. — Analytical and analytical, with a focus on player development and projection.
Facts Included:
The article includes analysis of the quarterbacks' skills, such as footwork, arm strength, and accuracy, and projects their draft potential based on college performance.
It provides a detailed scouting report on each player, including their stats, strengths, and weaknesses, but does not mention any specific events.
It mentions that the player rankings are part of a series for the 2027 NFL Draft.
The article includes a list of top players at the quarterback position, comparing them and ranking them based on their college careers and potential.
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimArch Manning is expected by many to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
ClaimA statistical model called FRED, created by CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson, compares QB prospects in the 2027 class to other notable passers drafted since 2015.