2026 MLB Awards Watch: MVP, Cy Young and more for August

A Shifting Landscape in the Awards Races

Seven weeks have passed since the last Awards Watch, and while the leaderboards still feature many familiar names, the picture has changed considerably. The most dramatic shift has come in the National League MVP race, where Pete Crow-Armstrong has leapfrogged Shohei Ohtani as the current front-runner, according to ABC7 Los Angeles. The change in the betting markets occurred on Aug. 5 after a head-to-head duel at Wrigley Field, but the AXE system had already flipped on July 21, and Crow-Armstrong's edge has since grown into a clear, if not insurmountable, advantage.

Ohtani's injury has kept him off the mound for more than seven weeks, limiting him to designated hitter duties. Despite that, he remains a superstar-level bat, but Crow-Armstrong has done everything an MVP is supposed to do, according to ABC7. He is the best defensive player in the league, has matched Ohtani at the plate, and has lapped him in baserunning. The two-man race is one of the most scintillating of the season, with ABC7 noting that Ohtani's historical 50/50 season tear in 2024—when he hit .628/.667/1.186 over 10 games with six homers, 20 RBIs, and 10 steals—remains a benchmark for what he can do.

AL MVP: Alvarez Leads, Witt Close Behind

In the American League, Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros is the clear favorite for MVP, according to ESPN. ABC7's AXE ratings place Alvarez at 148.1, with a Triple Crown trajectory—he leads the AL in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is the top contender at 143 AXE, and he has been on a tear since returning from a knee injury, outhitting Alvarez in August. The betting markets see Junior Caminero as the biggest threat to Alvarez, but AXE has him ninth, noting his low-leverage homers and low win probability added. Caminero's RBI versus expectation ranks 454th in the majors, and he has 48 more RBI opportunities than Willson Contreras but five fewer net RBIs, per ABC7.

Cy Young Races: Tight in the AL, Clear in the NL

The AL Cy Young race is neck-and-neck between Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, according to ABC7. Schlittler holds a 145.3 AXE rating to Cease's 145.1. Schlittler has a 1.14 ERA in 15 road starts but a 3.71 ERA in 12 home starts, a split that could factor into the final weeks. Cease has been the second-hottest AL pitcher since the last watch, behind Gerrit Cole, and the two are tied in leading WAR versions. ABC7 notes that this race is so close it will likely come down to which pitcher comes up big in key starts.

In the NL, Jacob Misiorowski holds a steady lead for the Cy Young, according to ESPN. ABC7's AXE ratings have Cristopher Sanchez leading at 154.1, with Misiorowski second at 150.5. Sanchez has won seven of eight starts with a 2.18 ERA after giving up nine runs at Kansas City, while Misiorowski has a 1.68 ERA, a 39% strikeout rate, a 67% quality start rate, and an average game score of 68.2. Chris Sale is the top competition in the markets, with a 2.40 ERA and 1.66 FIP since the last watch, per ABC7.

Rookie of the Year: McGonigle and a Two-Man NL Race

Kevin McGonigle of the Detroit Tigers is mostly assured of the AL Rookie of the Year, according to ESPN. ABC7's AXE ratings have him at 134.4, leading the race. He hits .311 as a leadoff hitter versus .243 lower in the order, and manager A.J. Hinch moved him around in August, during which he hit .229 in a nine-game stretch. Parker Messick has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight starts since the beginning of July, with a 1.88 ERA, and the markets like Munetaka Murakami, who could reach 40 homers.

The NL Rookie of the Year race appears to be a two-man battle between JJ Wetherholt of the St. Louis Cardinals and Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds, according to ESPN. But Nolan McLean of the Mets remains on the fringe with a 2.19 ERA over his last nine starts. ABC7's AXE ratings have Wetherholt leading at 131.7, though he has hit .207/.323/.321 since the All-Star break and hasn't hit lefties all season. Carson Benge is the hottest NL rookie since the break, hitting .319/.369/.504, and Stewart leads the NL in RBIs with 98, though he trails Wetherholt in win probability added.

Benge's Resurgence and Fantasy Implications

ESPN highlights Carson Benge as a top sleeper in the NL Rookie of the Year race and the week's top fantasy pickup. Benge's awful opening month—.136/.219/.197 in 21 games—nearly led to a demotion, but an adjustment to his batting stance in late April transformed his season. Since then, he has hit .300/.357/.466 with 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 104 games. Since moving down from the leadoff spot, he has hit .308/.363/.474 with five homers, 17 RBIs, and seven stolen bases in 35 games. Benge is one home run behind Wetherholt and 11 behind Stewart, but he is five stolen bases ahead of both, has a batting average 15 points ahead, and is competitive in wOBA and OPS+. Despite this, he remains available in nearly two-thirds of ESPN leagues.

Other Notes: Diaz, Anderson, and Cavalli

ESPN also covers several other fantasy-relevant storylines. Mets closer Edwin Diaz has struggled recently, posting a 12.91 ERA and blowing three of six save chances before returning to the IL. He is ineligible for activation before Sept. 2 and is adjusting his arm angle while sidelined. Tanner Scott, who converted 16 of 18 save chances with a 2.65 ERA when Diaz was previously sidelined, has three saves since Diaz's IL placement.

Kade Anderson made his MLB debut on Saturday, allowing three earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. He had a 10-1 record, 1.06 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and 40.5% strikeout rate in 18 starts for Double-A Arkansas, and he features a four-pitch repertoire led by a 93.6 mph four-seam fastball. The Mariners face 13 of their final 31 games against teams among the bottom six in runs per game, plus four against the Athletics' road offense, which is second-worst in the majors.

Cade Cavalli has been fantasy baseball's best pitcher over the past 53 days, accumulating 149 fantasy points in eight starts, ahead of Cease, Skubal, and Misiorowski. His success is attributed to increased four-seam fastball velocity, cutter usage, and a better-than-35% whiff rate with his knuckle curve. He is scheduled to start at home against the Rockies and Marlins this week, with a subsequent slate that includes the Braves, Padres at Petco, and Angels.

Manager of the Year and Team Notes

ABC7 also covers the Manager of the Year races. Will Venable of the Chicago White Sox is the AL front-runner with a 113.9 EARL rating, despite incidents like losing track of mound visits and not walking Crow-Armstrong before a homer. In the NL, Pat Murphy could win three in a row, which would be a first, with Clayton McCullough second. The Dodgers have been floundering of late, which could affect the NL races.

As the regular season enters its final five weeks, none of the awards races are completely settled, and the analytical tools—AXE ratings and betting markets—offer differing perspectives on who will take home the hardware.